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Bulls vs Rockets prediction NBA · Sunday, April 4

Sun, Apr 4 · 4:00 PM ETToyota Center (Houston)

Chicago Bulls

1-4 · away

Projected score

108-123

Houston Rockets

5-0 · home

11% win CHIwin HOU 89%

FavoriteHOU

Projected margin15.6

Projected total231

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Houston Rockets (5-0) host the Chicago Bulls (1-4) on Sunday, April 4 at 4:00 PM ET at Toyota Center (Houston) in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Rockets a 89% chance to win and projects a 108-123 score (Bulls – Rockets), about 231 total points. This season, the Rockets are 2-0 at home and the Bulls are 1-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 5-0 for the Rockets and 1-4 for the Bulls (current streaks: Rockets W5, Bulls L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 15% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Patrick Williams (Bulls), Nic Claxton (Bulls), Reed Sheppard (Rockets), Marcus Smart (Rockets) and Steven Adams (Rockets). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

The Rockets start with a clear edge. The model projects Rockets 123 – 108 Bulls, a margin of about 15.6 points in favor of the Rockets and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Rockets will be without Reed Sheppard or Marcus Smart (and 1 other). The Bulls will be without Patrick Williams or Nic Claxton.

The overall strength gap (+6.7 vs -7.2 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Bulls need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Rockets' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.7 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Rockets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)HOU +6.7 / CHI -7.2 per game

+13.9

Home-court advantageRockets at home

+2.3

InjuriesHOU: 3 out, 1 questionable · CHI: 2 out, 2 questionable

-0.6

Expected marginfor Rockets

+15.6

Scenarios

Rockets win by 10+

67%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

15%

Bulls win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

CHIHOU

115.6

Points scored / game

117.5

124.1

Points allowed / game

109.7

42.1 %

Field goal %

51.7 %

27.6 %

3-point %

40.4 %

42.0

3-pointers attempted / game

32.2

78.6 %

Free throw %

84.7 %

44.8

Rebounds / game

44.8

24.4

Assists / game

28.2

9.0

Steals / game

10.2

4.8

Blocks / game

6.0

17.8

Turnovers / game

15.8

Players to watch

Bulls

Norman PowellG · #2421.6pts / game

Josh GiddeyG · #38.0assists

Jalen SmithF · #258.2rebounds

Rockets

Alperen SengunC · #2824.5pts / game

Alperen SengunC · #287.0assists

Alperen SengunC · #289.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

CHI

135-92W

132-125L

124-120L

134-99L

133-127

HOU

128-110W

114-110W

121-114W

120-110W

132-100

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

CHI 11% · HOU 89%

ESPN BPI

CHI 16% · HOU 84%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

CHI		HOU
1-4	Record	5-0
115.6	Points scored / game	117.5
124.1	Points allowed / game	109.7
-7.2	Adjusted margin / game	+6.7
L3	Current streak	W5
1-4	Last 10 games	5-0
1-2 road	Home / road record	2-0 home
31-51 (-5.2)	Last season	52-30 (+5.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Bulls

Patrick Williams FOut

Nic Claxton COut

Jalen Smith FDay-To-Day

Tobe Awaka FDay-To-Day

Injury report Rockets

Reed Sheppard GOut

Marcus Smart GOut

Steven Adams COut

Alperen Sengun CDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.