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Rockets vs Bulls prediction NBA · Sunday, December 13

Sun, Dec 13 · 6:00 PM ETUnited Center

Houston Rockets

5-0 · away

Projected score

121-110

Chicago Bulls

1-4 · home

81% win HOUwin CHI 19%

FavoriteHOU

Projected margin11.0

Projected total231

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Chicago Bulls (1-4) host the Houston Rockets (5-0) on Sunday, December 13 at 6:00 PM ET at United Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Rockets a 81% chance to win and projects a 121-110 score (Rockets – Bulls), about 231 total points. This season, the Bulls are 0-2 at home and the Rockets are 3-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Bulls and 5-0 for the Rockets (current streaks: Bulls L3, Rockets W5). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 22% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Reed Sheppard (Rockets), Marcus Smart (Rockets), Steven Adams (Rockets), Patrick Williams (Bulls) and Nic Claxton (Bulls). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Rockets dominate this matchup. The model projects Bulls 110 – 121 Rockets, a margin of about 11.0 points in favor of the Rockets and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Bulls will be without Patrick Williams or Nic Claxton. The Rockets will be without Reed Sheppard or Marcus Smart (and 1 other).

The overall strength gap (-7.2 vs +6.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Bulls need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Rockets' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.7 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Bulls

Team strength (adjusted point differential)CHI -7.2 / HOU +6.7 per game

-13.9

Home-court advantageBulls at home

+2.3

InjuriesCHI: 2 out, 2 questionable · HOU: 3 out, 1 questionable

+0.6

Expected marginfor Bulls

-11.0

Scenarios

Bulls win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

22%

Rockets win by 10+

53%

Stat comparison Current season

HOUCHI

117.5

Points scored / game

115.6

109.7

Points allowed / game

124.1

51.7 %

Field goal %

42.1 %

40.4 %

3-point %

27.6 %

32.2

3-pointers attempted / game

42.0

84.7 %

Free throw %

78.6 %

44.8

Rebounds / game

44.8

28.2

Assists / game

24.4

10.2

Steals / game

9.0

6.0

Blocks / game

4.8

15.8

Turnovers / game

17.8

Players to watch

Rockets

Alperen SengunC · #2824.5pts / game

Alperen SengunC · #287.0assists

Alperen SengunC · #289.0rebounds

Bulls

Norman PowellG · #2421.6pts / game

Josh GiddeyG · #38.0assists

Jalen SmithF · #258.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

HOU

128-110W

114-110W

121-114W

120-110W

132-100

CHI

135-92W

132-125L

124-120L

134-99L

133-127

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

HOU 81% · CHI 19%

ESPN BPI

HOU 80% · CHI 20%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

HOU		CHI
5-0	Record	1-4
117.5	Points scored / game	115.6
109.7	Points allowed / game	124.1
+6.7	Adjusted margin / game	-7.2
W5	Current streak	L3
5-0	Last 10 games	1-4
3-0 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
52-30 (+5.2)	Last season	31-51 (-5.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Rockets

Reed Sheppard GOut

Marcus Smart GOut

Steven Adams COut

Alperen Sengun CDay-To-Day

Injury report Bulls

Patrick Williams FOut

Nic Claxton COut

Jalen Smith FDay-To-Day

Tobe Awaka FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.