Pacers vs Raptors prediction NBA · Sunday, April 4
At a glance
The Toronto Raptors (3-1) host the Indiana Pacers (2-3) on Sunday, April 4 at 3:30 PM ET at Scotiabank Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Raptors a 88% chance to win and projects a 106-120 score (Pacers – Raptors), about 226 total points. This season, the Raptors are 2-0 at home and the Pacers are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Raptors and 2-3 for the Pacers (current streaks: Raptors W1, Pacers L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 16% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Ivica Zubac (Pacers), T.J. McConnell (Pacers), Ben Sheppard (Pacers), Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers), Johnny Furphy (Pacers) and Kawhi Leonard (Raptors)…. Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
On paper, the Raptors dominate this matchup. The model projects Raptors 120 – 106 Pacers, a margin of about 14.7 points in favor of the Raptors and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Raptors will be without Kawhi Leonard or Nate Bittle. The Pacers will be without Ivica Zubac or T.J. McConnell (and 3 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (+5.0 vs -4.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Pacers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Raptors' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.5 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
INDTOR
Players to watch
Pacers
Pascal SiakamF · #4324.0pts / game
Tyrese HaliburtonG · #09.5assists
Ivica ZubacC · #409.0reboundsRaptors
RJ BarrettF · #922.0pts / game
Immanuel QuickleyG · #55.5assists
Scottie BarnesF · #47.2reboundsRecent form
IND
123-120L
121-105W
136-109L
110-102L
114-109TOR
129-125W
135-92W
112-102L
117-94W
129-99Head-to-head
3 meetings scheduled this season.
TOR
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| IND | TOR | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 3-1 |
| 113.2 | Points scored / game | 115.4 |
| 118.8 | Points allowed / game | 109.5 |
| -4.7 | Adjusted margin / game | +5.0 |
| L2 | Current streak | W1 |
| 2-3 | Last 10 games | 3-1 |
| 2-1 road | Home / road record | 2-0 home |
| 19-63 (-8.0) | Last season | 46-36 (+2.8) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Pacers
Injury report Raptors
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.