Raptors vs Pacers prediction NBA · Thursday, March 18
At a glance
The Indiana Pacers (2-3) host the Toronto Raptors (3-1) on Thursday, March 18 at 7:00 PM ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Raptors a 79% chance to win and projects a 118-108 score (Raptors – Pacers), about 226 total points. This season, the Pacers are 0-2 at home and the Raptors are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Pacers and 3-1 for the Raptors (current streaks: Pacers L2, Raptors W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 23% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Kawhi Leonard (Raptors), Nate Bittle (Raptors), Ivica Zubac (Pacers), T.J. McConnell (Pacers), Ben Sheppard (Pacers) and Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers)…. Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
On paper, the Raptors dominate this matchup. The model projects Pacers 108 – 118 Raptors, a margin of about 10.1 points in favor of the Raptors and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pacers will be without Ivica Zubac or T.J. McConnell (and 3 others). The Raptors will be without Kawhi Leonard or Nate Bittle. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (-4.7 vs +5.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Pacers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Raptors' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.5 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
TORIND
Players to watch
Raptors
RJ BarrettF · #922.0pts / game
Immanuel QuickleyG · #55.5assists
Scottie BarnesF · #47.2reboundsPacers
Pascal SiakamF · #4324.0pts / game
Tyrese HaliburtonG · #09.5assists
Ivica ZubacC · #409.0reboundsRecent form
TOR
129-125W
135-92W
112-102L
117-94W
129-99IND
123-120L
121-105W
136-109L
110-102L
114-109Head-to-head
3 meetings scheduled this season.
TOR
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| TOR | IND | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| 115.4 | Points scored / game | 113.2 |
| 109.5 | Points allowed / game | 118.8 |
| +5.0 | Adjusted margin / game | -4.7 |
| W1 | Current streak | L2 |
| 3-1 | Last 10 games | 2-3 |
| 1-1 road | Home / road record | 0-2 home |
| 46-36 (+2.8) | Last season | 19-63 (-8.0) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Raptors
Injury report Pacers
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.