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Timberwolves vs Mavericks prediction NBA · Sunday, April 4

Sun, Apr 4 · 3:00 PM ETAmerican Airlines Center · NBA TV, KFAA-TV, MavsTV, DAZN MIN

Minnesota Timberwolves

3-2 · away

Projected score

118-111

Dallas Mavericks

3-2 · home

73% win MINwin DAL 27%

FavoriteMIN

Projected margin7.8

Projected total229

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Dallas Mavericks (3-2) host the Minnesota Timberwolves (3-2) on Sunday, April 4 at 3:00 PM ET at American Airlines Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Timberwolves a 73% chance to win and projects a 118-111 score (Timberwolves – Mavericks), about 229 total points. This season, the Mavericks are 1-1 at home and the Timberwolves are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Mavericks and 3-2 for the Timberwolves (current streaks: Mavericks W2, Timberwolves L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 26% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves), Donte DiVincenzo (Timberwolves), Tarik Biberovic (Mavericks), Santi Aldama (Mavericks), Sergio de Larrea (Mavericks) and Dereck Lively II (Mavericks). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

The Timberwolves start with a clear edge. The model projects Mavericks 111 – 118 Timberwolves, a margin of about 7.8 points in favor of the Timberwolves and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Mavericks will be without Tarik Biberovic or Santi Aldama (and 2 others). The Timberwolves will be without Anthony Edwards or Donte DiVincenzo.

The overall strength gap (-2.8 vs +5.2 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Timberwolves' offense (118.7 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Timberwolves' defense allows clearly fewer points (112.6 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Mavericks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DAL -2.8 / MIN +5.2 per game

-8.0

Home-court advantageMavericks at home

+2.3

InjuriesDAL: 4 out, 1 questionable · MIN: 2 out, 0 questionable

-2.2

Expected marginfor Mavericks

-7.8

Scenarios

Mavericks win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

26%

Timberwolves win by 10+

43%

Stat comparison Current season

MINDAL

118.7

Points scored / game

114.1

112.6

Points allowed / game

117.4

47.3 %

Field goal %

49.0 %

38.4 %

3-point %

34.6 %

40.6

3-pointers attempted / game

38.2

62.7 %

Free throw %

76.7 %

51.6

Rebounds / game

44.2

27.0

Assists / game

27.6

9.2

Steals / game

9.0

4.4

Blocks / game

7.4

16.2

Turnovers / game

15.6

Players to watch

Timberwolves

Anthony EdwardsG · #533.2pts / game

LaMelo BallG · #16.6assists

Rudy GobertC · #2712.2rebounds

Mavericks

Cooper FlaggF · #3225.2pts / game

Cooper FlaggF · #326.8assists

P.J. WashingtonF · #257.8rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MIN

131-106W

115-93W

117-94L

127-125 OTL

119-114

DAL

128-110W

121-105L

122-106W

113-109W

120-96

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MIN 73% · DAL 27%

ESPN BPI

MIN 63% · DAL 37%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MIN		DAL
3-2	Record	3-2
118.7	Points scored / game	114.1
112.6	Points allowed / game	117.4
+5.2	Adjusted margin / game	-2.8
L2	Current streak	W2
3-2	Last 10 games	3-2
2-1 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
49-33 (+3.4)	Last season	26-56 (-5.5)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards GOut

Donte DiVincenzo GOut

Injury report Mavericks

Tarik Biberovic FOut

Santi Aldama FOut

Sergio de Larrea FOut

Dereck Lively II COut

Naji Marshall FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.