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Mavericks vs Timberwolves prediction NBA · Thursday, November 12

Thu, Nov 12 · 8:00 PM ETTarget Center · NBA TV, KFAA-TV, MavsTV

Dallas Mavericks

3-2 · away

Projected score

108-121

Minnesota Timberwolves

3-2 · home

16% win DALwin MIN 84%

FavoriteMIN

Projected margin12.4

Projected total229

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Minnesota Timberwolves (3-2) host the Dallas Mavericks (3-2) on Thursday, November 12 at 8:00 PM ET at Target Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Timberwolves a 84% chance to win and projects a 108-121 score (Mavericks – Timberwolves), about 229 total points. This season, the Timberwolves are 1-1 at home and the Mavericks are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Timberwolves and 3-2 for the Mavericks (current streaks: Timberwolves L2, Mavericks W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 19% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Tarik Biberovic (Mavericks), Santi Aldama (Mavericks), Sergio de Larrea (Mavericks), Dereck Lively II (Mavericks), Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves) and Donte DiVincenzo (Timberwolves). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

The Timberwolves start with a clear edge. The model projects Timberwolves 121 – 108 Mavericks, a margin of about 12.4 points in favor of the Timberwolves and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Timberwolves will be without Anthony Edwards or Donte DiVincenzo. The Mavericks will be without Tarik Biberovic or Santi Aldama (and 2 others).

The overall strength gap (+5.2 vs -2.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Timberwolves' offense (118.7 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Timberwolves' defense allows clearly fewer points (112.6 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Timberwolves

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIN +5.2 / DAL -2.8 per game

+8.0

Home-court advantageTimberwolves at home

+2.3

InjuriesMIN: 2 out, 0 questionable · DAL: 4 out, 1 questionable

+2.2

Expected marginfor Timberwolves

+12.4

Scenarios

Timberwolves win by 10+

58%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

19%

Mavericks win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

DALMIN

114.1

Points scored / game

118.7

117.4

Points allowed / game

112.6

49.0 %

Field goal %

47.3 %

34.6 %

3-point %

38.4 %

38.2

3-pointers attempted / game

40.6

76.7 %

Free throw %

62.7 %

44.2

Rebounds / game

51.6

27.6

Assists / game

27.0

9.0

Steals / game

9.2

7.4

Blocks / game

4.4

15.6

Turnovers / game

16.2

Players to watch

Mavericks

Cooper FlaggF · #3225.2pts / game

Cooper FlaggF · #326.8assists

P.J. WashingtonF · #257.8rebounds

Timberwolves

Anthony EdwardsG · #533.2pts / game

LaMelo BallG · #16.6assists

Rudy GobertC · #2712.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DAL

128-110W

121-105L

122-106W

113-109W

120-96

MIN

131-106W

115-93W

117-94L

127-125 OTL

119-114

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DAL 16% · MIN 84%

ESPN BPI

DAL 30% · MIN 70%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

DAL		MIN
3-2	Record	3-2
114.1	Points scored / game	118.7
117.4	Points allowed / game	112.6
-2.8	Adjusted margin / game	+5.2
W2	Current streak	L2
3-2	Last 10 games	3-2
2-1 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
26-56 (-5.5)	Last season	49-33 (+3.4)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Mavericks

Tarik Biberovic FOut

Santi Aldama FOut

Sergio de Larrea FOut

Dereck Lively II COut

Naji Marshall FDay-To-Day

Injury report Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards GOut

Donte DiVincenzo GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.