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Nets vs Bucks prediction NBA · Sunday, April 4

Sun, Apr 4 · 2:00 PM ETFiserv Forum · DAZN (YES), MyMi, Bucks App

Brooklyn Nets

0-4 · away

Projected score

111-117

Milwaukee Bucks

1-4 · home

31% win BKNwin MIL 69%

FavoriteMIL

Projected margin6.1

Projected total227

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Milwaukee Bucks (1-4) host the Brooklyn Nets (0-4) on Sunday, April 4 at 2:00 PM ET at Fiserv Forum in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Bucks a 69% chance to win and projects a 111-117 score (Nets – Bucks), about 227 total points. This season, the Bucks are 1-2 at home and the Nets are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Bucks and 0-4 for the Nets (current streaks: Bucks L1, Nets L4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 28% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Egor Demin (Nets) and Tyler Bilodeau (Nets). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Bucks, but the Nets have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Bucks 117 – 111 Nets, a margin of about 6.1 points in favor of the Bucks and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Nets will be without Egor Demin or Tyler Bilodeau. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Nets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Bucks' offense (111.4 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Bucks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIL -6.4 / BKN -8.4 per game

+2.0

Home-court advantageBucks at home

+2.3

InjuriesMIL: 0 out, 0 questionable · BKN: 2 out, 0 questionable

+1.8

Expected marginfor Bucks

+6.1

Scenarios

Bucks win by 10+

38%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

28%

Nets win by 10+

10%

Stat comparison Current season

BKNMIL

108.0

Points scored / game

111.4

117.9

Points allowed / game

119.0

42.9 %

Field goal %

44.9 %

36.7 %

3-point %

34.0 %

42.3

3-pointers attempted / game

41.2

76.6 %

Free throw %

71.6 %

43.5

Rebounds / game

49.8

24.0

Assists / game

24.6

10.0

Steals / game

5.8

4.0

Blocks / game

4.0

17.5

Turnovers / game

16.8

Players to watch

Nets

Michael Porter Jr.F · #1722.8pts / game

Julius RandleF · #305.8assists

Julius RandleF · #307.5rebounds

Bucks

Tyler HerroG · #1123.4pts / game

Tyler HerroG · #114.6assists

Kel'el WareC · #98.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

BKN

L144-128L110-103L125-121L136-109L125-124 OT

MIL

128-116L

132-125L

127-116W

110-102L

132-100

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

BKN 31% · MIL 69%

ESPN BPI

BKN 46% · MIL 54%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

BKN		MIL
0-4	Record	1-4
108.0	Points scored / game	111.4
117.9	Points allowed / game	119.0
-8.4	Adjusted margin / game	-6.4
L4	Current streak	L1
0-4	Last 10 games	1-4
0-2 road	Home / road record	1-2 home
20-62 (-10.0)	Last season	32-50 (-6.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Nets

Egor Demin GOut

Tyler Bilodeau FOut

Injury report Bucks

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.