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Bucks vs Nets prediction NBA · Tuesday, March 9

Tue, Mar 9 · 7:30 PM ETBarclays Center · DAZN (YES), MyMi, Bucks App

Milwaukee Bucks

1-4 · away

Projected score

114-113

Brooklyn Nets

0-4 · home

55% win MILwin BKN 45%

FavoriteMIL

Projected margin1.5

Projected total227

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Brooklyn Nets (0-4) host the Milwaukee Bucks (1-4) on Tuesday, March 9 at 7:30 PM ET at Barclays Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Bucks a 55% chance to win and projects a 114-113 score (Bucks – Nets), about 227 total points. This season, the Nets are 0-2 at home and the Bucks are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Nets and 1-4 for the Bucks (current streaks: Nets L4, Bucks L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Egor Demin (Nets) and Tyler Bilodeau (Nets). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Nets 113 – 114 Bucks, a margin of about 1.5 points in favor of the Bucks and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Nets will be without Egor Demin or Tyler Bilodeau. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Nets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Bucks' offense (111.4 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Nets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)BKN -8.4 / MIL -6.4 per game

-2.0

Home-court advantageNets at home

+2.3

InjuriesBKN: 2 out, 0 questionable · MIL: 0 out, 0 questionable

-1.8

Expected marginfor Nets

-1.5

Scenarios

Nets win by 10+

18%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Bucks win by 10+

25%

Stat comparison Current season

MILBKN

111.4

Points scored / game

108.0

119.0

Points allowed / game

117.9

44.9 %

Field goal %

42.9 %

34.0 %

3-point %

36.7 %

41.2

3-pointers attempted / game

42.3

71.6 %

Free throw %

76.6 %

49.8

Rebounds / game

43.5

24.6

Assists / game

24.0

5.8

Steals / game

10.0

4.0

Blocks / game

4.0

16.8

Turnovers / game

17.5

Players to watch

Bucks

Tyler HerroG · #1123.4pts / game

Tyler HerroG · #114.6assists

Kel'el WareC · #98.4rebounds

Nets

Michael Porter Jr.F · #1722.8pts / game

Julius RandleF · #305.8assists

Julius RandleF · #307.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MIL

128-116L

132-125L

127-116W

110-102L

132-100

BKN

L144-128L110-103L125-121L136-109L125-124 OT

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MIL 55% · BKN 45%

ESPN BPI

MIL 47% · BKN 53%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

MIL		BKN
1-4	Record	0-4
111.4	Points scored / game	108.0
119.0	Points allowed / game	117.9
-6.4	Adjusted margin / game	-8.4
L1	Current streak	L4
1-4	Last 10 games	0-4
0-2 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
32-50 (-6.2)	Last season	20-62 (-10.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Bucks

No injuries reported.

Injury report Nets

Egor Demin GOut

Tyler Bilodeau FOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.