Pelicans vs Thunder prediction NBA · Saturday, April 3
At a glance
The Oklahoma City Thunder (4-1) host the New Orleans Pelicans (0-4) on Saturday, April 3 at 5:00 PM ET at Paycom Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Thunder a 81% chance to win and projects a 108-119 score (Pelicans – Thunder), about 227 total points. This season, the Thunder are 3-0 at home and the Pelicans are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Thunder and 0-4 for the Pelicans (current streaks: Thunder L1, Pelicans L4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 21% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Yves Missi (Pelicans), Jalen Williams (Thunder), Alex Caruso (Thunder), Thomas Sorber (Thunder), Nikola Topic (Thunder) and Cason Wallace (Thunder). Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
The Thunder start with a clear edge. The model projects Thunder 119 – 108 Pelicans, a margin of about 11.1 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Thunder will be without Jalen Williams or Alex Caruso (and 3 others). The Pelicans will be without Yves Missi. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (+7.6 vs -4.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Pelicans need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (106.9 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
NOOKC
Players to watch
Pelicans
Zion WilliamsonF · #121.8pts / game
Dejounte MurrayG · #56.0assists
Derik QueenC · #229.2reboundsThunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #226.0pts / game
Alex CarusoG · #93.8assists
Isaiah HartensteinC · #559.6reboundsRecent form
NO
123-120L
120-119L
141-135 OTL104-91W
132-120OKC
116-104W96-84W
108-101W
125-114L
120-96Head-to-head
4 meetings scheduled this season.
NO
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| NO | OKC | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-4 | Record | 4-1 |
| 115.7 | Points scored / game | 115.8 |
| 120.5 | Points allowed / game | 106.9 |
| -4.1 | Adjusted margin / game | +7.6 |
| L4 | Current streak | L1 |
| 0-4 | Last 10 games | 4-1 |
| 0-2 road | Home / road record | 3-0 home |
| 26-56 (-4.5) | Last season | 64-18 (+11.1) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Pelicans
Injury report Thunder
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.