Thunder vs Pelicans prediction NBA · Wednesday, December 23
At a glance
The New Orleans Pelicans (0-4) host the Oklahoma City Thunder (4-1) on Wednesday, December 23 at 8:00 PM ET at Smoothie King Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Thunder a 68% chance to win and projects a 116-110 score (Thunder – Pelicans), about 225 total points. This season, the Pelicans are 0-2 at home and the Thunder are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Pelicans and 4-1 for the Thunder (current streaks: Pelicans L4, Thunder L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 28% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Thunder played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Jalen Williams (Thunder), Alex Caruso (Thunder), Thomas Sorber (Thunder), Nikola Topic (Thunder), Cason Wallace (Thunder) and Dejounte Murray (Pelicans)…. Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
The Thunder are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Pelicans 110 – 116 Thunder, a margin of about 6.0 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 225 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Thunder played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Pelicans will be without Dejounte Murray or Jordan Poole (and 1 other). The Thunder will be without Jalen Williams or Alex Caruso (and 3 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (-4.1 vs +7.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Pelicans need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (106.9 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
OKCNO
Players to watch
Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #226.0pts / game
Alex CarusoG · #93.8assists
Isaiah HartensteinC · #559.6reboundsPelicans
Zion WilliamsonF · #121.8pts / game
Dejounte MurrayG · #56.0assists
Derik QueenC · #229.2reboundsRecent form
OKC
116-104W
96-84W
108-101W
125-114L
120-96NO
107-106L
123-120L
120-119L141-135 OTL104-91Head-to-head
4 meetings scheduled this season.
NO
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| OKC | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 0-4 |
| 115.8 | Points scored / game | 115.7 |
| 106.9 | Points allowed / game | 120.5 |
| +7.6 | Adjusted margin / game | -4.1 |
| L1 | Current streak | L4 |
| 4-1 | Last 10 games | 0-4 |
| 1-1 road | Home / road record | 0-2 home |
| 64-18 (+11.1) | Last season | 26-56 (-4.5) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Thunder
Injury report Pelicans
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.