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Nuggets vs Suns prediction NBA · Friday, April 2

Fri, Apr 2 · 10:00 PM ETMortgage Matchup Center · Prime Video

Denver Nuggets

2-2 · away

Projected score

114-115

Phoenix Suns

1-2 · home

48% win DENwin PHX 52%

FavoritePHX

Projected margin0.6

Projected total229

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Phoenix Suns (1-2) host the Denver Nuggets (2-2) on Friday, April 2 at 10:00 PM ET at Mortgage Matchup Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Suns a 52% chance to win and projects a 114-115 score (Nuggets – Suns), about 229 total points. This season, the Suns are 1-0 at home and the Nuggets are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-2 for the Suns and 2-2 for the Nuggets (current streaks: Suns L1, Nuggets W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Cameron Johnson (Nuggets), Spencer Jones (Nuggets), Alpha Diallo (Nuggets), Julian Strawther (Nuggets) and Mark Williams (Suns). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Suns 115 – 114 Nuggets, a margin of about 0.6 points in favor of the Suns and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Suns will be without Mark Williams. The Nuggets will be without Cameron Johnson or Spencer Jones (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-1.4 vs +2.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Nuggets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Nuggets' offense (119.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Suns

Team strength (adjusted point differential)PHX -1.4 / DEN +2.6 per game

-4.0

Home-court advantageSuns at home

+2.3

InjuriesPHX: 1 out, 1 questionable · DEN: 4 out, 0 questionable

+2.4

Expected marginfor Suns

+0.6

Scenarios

Suns win by 10+

23%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Nuggets win by 10+

20%

Stat comparison Current season

DENPHX

119.2

Points scored / game

111.9

116.2

Points allowed / game

113.6

45.8 %

Field goal %

45.6 %

32.8 %

3-point %

31.9 %

34.3

3-pointers attempted / game

39.7

79.6 %

Free throw %

73.9 %

44.5

Rebounds / game

39.7

26.0

Assists / game

25.3

10.0

Steals / game

8.7

4.8

Blocks / game

5.3

15.3

Turnovers / game

14.0

Players to watch

Nuggets

Jamal MurrayG · #2722.5pts / game

Nikola JokicC · #159.0assists

Nikola JokicC · #1510.5rebounds

Suns

Devin BookerG · #1522.7pts / game

Devin BookerG · #155.3assists

Khaman MaluachC · #107.3rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DEN

121-106L

96-84W

141-135 OTL

134-114W

104-91

PHX

123-103L

119-116L

124-83W

131-122L

125-114

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DEN 48% · PHX 52%

ESPN BPI

DEN 57% · PHX 43%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

DEN		PHX
2-2	Record	1-2
119.2	Points scored / game	111.9
116.2	Points allowed / game	113.6
+2.6	Adjusted margin / game	-1.4
W1	Current streak	L1
2-2	Last 10 games	1-2
1-1 road	Home / road record	1-0 home
54-28 (+5.2)	Last season	45-37 (+1.5)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Nuggets

Cameron Johnson FOut

Spencer Jones FOut

Alpha Diallo FOut

Julian Strawther GOut

Injury report Suns

Mark Williams COut

Oso Ighodaro FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.