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Suns vs Nuggets prediction NBA · Monday, November 16

Mon, Nov 16 · 9:00 PM ETBall Arena · Suns Live, Arizona's Family 3TV

Phoenix Suns

1-2 · away

Projected score

111-116

Denver Nuggets

2-2 · home

33% win PHXwin DEN 67%

FavoriteDEN

Projected margin5.6

Projected total227

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Denver Nuggets (2-2) host the Phoenix Suns (1-2) on Monday, November 16 at 9:00 PM ET at Ball Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Nuggets a 67% chance to win and projects a 111-116 score (Suns – Nuggets), about 227 total points. This season, the Nuggets are 1-1 at home and the Suns are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-2 for the Nuggets and 1-2 for the Suns (current streaks: Nuggets W1, Suns L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 28% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Suns played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Mark Williams (Suns), Cameron Johnson (Nuggets), Spencer Jones (Nuggets), Alpha Diallo (Nuggets) and Julian Strawther (Nuggets). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Nuggets, but the Suns have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Nuggets 116 – 111 Suns, a margin of about 5.6 points in favor of the Nuggets and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Suns played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Nuggets will be without Cameron Johnson or Spencer Jones (and 2 others). The Suns will be without Mark Williams. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+2.6 vs -1.4 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Suns need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Nuggets' offense (119.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Nuggets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DEN +2.6 / PHX -1.4 per game

+4.0

Home-court advantageNuggets at home

+2.3

Back-to-backSuns played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesDEN: 4 out, 0 questionable · PHX: 1 out, 1 questionable

-2.4

Expected marginfor Nuggets

+5.6

Scenarios

Nuggets win by 10+

36%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

28%

Suns win by 10+

11%

Stat comparison Current season

PHXDEN

111.9

Points scored / game

119.2

113.6

Points allowed / game

116.2

45.6 %

Field goal %

45.8 %

31.9 %

3-point %

32.8 %

39.7

3-pointers attempted / game

34.3

73.9 %

Free throw %

79.6 %

39.7

Rebounds / game

44.5

25.3

Assists / game

26.0

8.7

Steals / game

10.0

5.3

Blocks / game

4.8

14.0

Turnovers / game

15.3

Players to watch

Suns

Devin BookerG · #1522.7pts / game

Devin BookerG · #155.3assists

Khaman MaluachC · #107.3rebounds

Nuggets

Jamal MurrayG · #2722.5pts / game

Nikola JokicC · #159.0assists

Nikola JokicC · #1510.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

PHX

123-103L

119-116L

124-83W

131-122L

125-114

DEN

121-106L

96-84W

141-135 OTL

134-114W

104-91

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

PHX 33% · DEN 67%

ESPN BPI

PHX 31% · DEN 69%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

PHX		DEN
1-2	Record	2-2
111.9	Points scored / game	119.2
113.6	Points allowed / game	116.2
-1.4	Adjusted margin / game	+2.6
L1	Current streak	W1
1-2	Last 10 games	2-2
0-2 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
45-37 (+1.5)	Last season	54-28 (+5.2)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Suns

Mark Williams COut

Oso Ighodaro FDay-To-Day

Injury report Nuggets

Cameron Johnson FOut

Spencer Jones FOut

Alpha Diallo FOut

Julian Strawther GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.