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Hornets vs Bucks prediction NBA · Friday, April 2

Fri, Apr 2 · 8:00 PM ETFiserv Forum · MyMi, Bucks App, DAZN CHA

Charlotte Hornets

3-2 · away

Projected score

111-112

Milwaukee Bucks

1-4 · home

49% win CHAwin MIL 51%

FavoriteMIL

Projected margin0.3

Projected total223

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Milwaukee Bucks (1-4) host the Charlotte Hornets (3-2) on Friday, April 2 at 8:00 PM ET at Fiserv Forum in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Bucks a 51% chance to win and projects a 111-112 score (Hornets – Bucks), about 223 total points. This season, the Bucks are 1-2 at home and the Hornets are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Bucks and 3-2 for the Hornets (current streaks: Bucks L1, Hornets L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Hornets played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Kon Knueppel (Hornets), Coby White (Hornets), Grant Williams (Hornets) and Kylan Boswell (Hornets). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Bucks 112 – 111 Hornets, a margin of about 0.3 points in favor of the Bucks and a total around 223 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Hornets played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Hornets will be without Kon Knueppel or Coby White (and 2 others).

The overall strength gap (-6.4 vs +1.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Hornets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Hornets' defense allows clearly fewer points (110.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Bucks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIL -6.4 / CHA +1.1 per game

-7.5

Home-court advantageBucks at home

+2.3

Back-to-backHornets played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesMIL: 0 out, 0 questionable · CHA: 4 out, 1 questionable

+4.0

Expected marginfor Bucks

+0.3

Scenarios

Bucks win by 10+

22%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Hornets win by 10+

20%

Stat comparison Current season

CHAMIL

111.6

Points scored / game

111.4

110.3

Points allowed / game

119.0

41.7 %

Field goal %

44.9 %

30.6 %

3-point %

34.0 %

43.2

3-pointers attempted / game

41.2

85.2 %

Free throw %

71.6 %

47.4

Rebounds / game

49.8

20.6

Assists / game

24.6

6.8

Steals / game

5.8

5.2

Blocks / game

4.0

19.0

Turnovers / game

16.8

Players to watch

Hornets

Brandon MillerF · #2425.6pts / game

Dennis SchroderG · #174.8assists

Moussa DiabateF · #149.4rebounds

Bucks

Tyler HerroG · #1123.4pts / game

Tyler HerroG · #114.6assists

Kel'el WareC · #98.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

CHA

110-103L

128-81W

115-110W

110-103L

97-89

MIL

128-116L

132-125L

127-116W

110-102L

132-100

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

CHA 49% · MIL 51%

ESPN BPI

CHA 60% · MIL 40%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

CHA		MIL
3-2	Record	1-4
111.6	Points scored / game	111.4
110.3	Points allowed / game	119.0
+1.1	Adjusted margin / game	-6.4
L1	Current streak	L1
3-2	Last 10 games	1-4
1-1 road	Home / road record	1-2 home
44-38 (+4.8)	Last season	32-50 (-6.2)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Hornets

Kon Knueppel GOut

Coby White GOut

Grant Williams FOut

Kylan Boswell GOut

Dennis Schroder GDay-To-Day

Injury report Bucks

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.