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Bucks vs Hornets prediction NBA · Thursday, February 11

Thu, Feb 11 · 7:00 PM ETSpectrum Center · DAZN CHA, MyMi, Bucks App

Milwaukee Bucks

1-4 · away

Projected score

109-115

Charlotte Hornets

3-2 · home

32% win MILwin CHA 68%

FavoriteCHA

Projected margin5.9

Projected total225

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Charlotte Hornets (3-2) host the Milwaukee Bucks (1-4) on Thursday, February 11 at 7:00 PM ET at Spectrum Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Hornets a 68% chance to win and projects a 109-115 score (Bucks – Hornets), about 225 total points. This season, the Hornets are 2-1 at home and the Bucks are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Hornets and 1-4 for the Bucks (current streaks: Hornets L1, Bucks L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 28% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Kon Knueppel (Hornets), Coby White (Hornets), Grant Williams (Hornets) and Kylan Boswell (Hornets). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Hornets, but the Bucks have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Hornets 115 – 109 Bucks, a margin of about 5.9 points in favor of the Hornets and a total around 225 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Hornets will be without Kon Knueppel or Coby White (and 2 others).

The overall strength gap (+1.1 vs -6.4 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Bucks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Hornets' defense allows clearly fewer points (110.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Hornets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)CHA +1.1 / MIL -6.4 per game

+7.5

Home-court advantageHornets at home

+2.3

InjuriesCHA: 4 out, 1 questionable · MIL: 0 out, 0 questionable

-4.0

Expected marginfor Hornets

+5.9

Scenarios

Hornets win by 10+

37%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

28%

Bucks win by 10+

10%

Stat comparison Current season

MILCHA

111.4

Points scored / game

111.6

119.0

Points allowed / game

110.3

44.9 %

Field goal %

41.7 %

34.0 %

3-point %

30.6 %

41.2

3-pointers attempted / game

43.2

71.6 %

Free throw %

85.2 %

49.8

Rebounds / game

47.4

24.6

Assists / game

20.6

5.8

Steals / game

6.8

4.0

Blocks / game

5.2

16.8

Turnovers / game

19.0

Players to watch

Bucks

Tyler HerroG · #1123.4pts / game

Tyler HerroG · #114.6assists

Kel'el WareC · #98.4rebounds

Hornets

Brandon MillerF · #2425.6pts / game

Dennis SchroderG · #174.8assists

Moussa DiabateF · #149.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MIL

128-116L

132-125L

127-116W

110-102L

132-100

CHA

110-103L

128-81W

115-110W

110-103L

97-89

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MIL 32% · CHA 68%

ESPN BPI

MIL 29% · CHA 71%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MIL		CHA
1-4	Record	3-2
111.4	Points scored / game	111.6
119.0	Points allowed / game	110.3
-6.4	Adjusted margin / game	+1.1
L1	Current streak	L1
1-4	Last 10 games	3-2
0-2 road	Home / road record	2-1 home
32-50 (-6.2)	Last season	44-38 (+4.8)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Bucks

No injuries reported.

Injury report Hornets

Kon Knueppel GOut

Coby White GOut

Grant Williams FOut

Kylan Boswell GOut

Dennis Schroder GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.