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76ers vs Wizards prediction NBA · Friday, April 2

Fri, Apr 2 · 7:00 PM ETCapital One Arena

Philadelphia 76ers

4-1 · away

Projected score

117-112

Washington Wizards

2-3 · home

66% win PHIwin WSH 34%

FavoritePHI

Projected margin5.3

Projected total229

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Washington Wizards (2-3) host the Philadelphia 76ers (4-1) on Friday, April 2 at 7:00 PM ET at Capital One Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the 76ers a 66% chance to win and projects a 117-112 score (76ers – Wizards), about 229 total points. This season, the Wizards are 1-1 at home and the 76ers are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Wizards and 4-1 for the 76ers (current streaks: Wizards L2, 76ers W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jabari Walker (76ers), Tacko Fall (76ers), Dominick Barlow (76ers), Ariel Hukporti (76ers), Justin Champagnie (Wizards) and Tristan Vukcevic (Wizards)…. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The 76ers are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Wizards 112 – 117 76ers, a margin of about 5.3 points in favor of the 76ers and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Wizards will be without Justin Champagnie or Tristan Vukcevic (and 1 other). The 76ers will be without Jabari Walker or Tacko Fall (and 2 others).

The overall strength gap (-7.7 vs +0.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Wizards need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The 76ers' defense allows clearly fewer points (113.5 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Wizards

Team strength (adjusted point differential)WSH -7.7 / PHI +0.7 per game

-8.5

Home-court advantageWizards at home

+2.3

InjuriesWSH: 3 out, 1 questionable · PHI: 4 out, 1 questionable

+0.9

Expected marginfor Wizards

-5.3

Scenarios

Wizards win by 10+

11%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

29%

76ers win by 10+

35%

Stat comparison Current season

PHIWSH

114.4

Points scored / game

113.1

113.5

Points allowed / game

122.2

42.8 %

Field goal %

48.0 %

32.6 %

3-point %

28.5 %

35.0

3-pointers attempted / game

31.6

77.5 %

Free throw %

83.1 %

42.2

Rebounds / game

40.0

24.6

Assists / game

25.8

9.8

Steals / game

7.4

5.6

Blocks / game

5.6

12.6

Turnovers / game

13.6

Players to watch

76ers

Tyrese MaxeyG · #028.4pts / game

LeBron JamesF · #236.8assists

Joel EmbiidC · #2110.0rebounds

Wizards

Anthony DavisF · #2321.8pts / game

Trae YoungG · #310.4assists

Anthony DavisF · #238.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

PHI

106-100W

114-106W

127-116L

106-93W

114-109

WSH

128-116L

112-102W

124-120L

110-103L

121-111

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

PHI 66% · WSH 34%

ESPN BPI

PHI 66% · WSH 34%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

PHI		WSH
4-1	Record	2-3
114.4	Points scored / game	113.1
113.5	Points allowed / game	122.2
+0.7	Adjusted margin / game	-7.7
W1	Current streak	L2
4-1	Last 10 games	2-3
2-0 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
45-37 (-0.2)	Last season	17-65 (-12.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report 76ers

Jabari Walker FOut

Tacko Fall COut

Dominick Barlow FOut

Ariel Hukporti COut

Jaylen Brown GDay-To-Day

Injury report Wizards

Justin Champagnie FOut

Tristan Vukcevic FOut

Jamir Watkins GOut

Tre Johnson GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.