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Wizards vs 76ers prediction NBA · Tuesday, January 12

Tue, Jan 12 · 8:00 PM ETXfinity Mobile Arena · NBC

Washington Wizards

2-3 · away

Projected score

108-119

Philadelphia 76ers

4-1 · home

18% win WSHwin PHI 82%

FavoritePHI

Projected margin11.5

Projected total227

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Philadelphia 76ers (4-1) host the Washington Wizards (2-3) on Tuesday, January 12 at 8:00 PM ET at Xfinity Mobile Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the 76ers a 82% chance to win and projects a 108-119 score (Wizards – 76ers), about 227 total points. This season, the 76ers are 2-1 at home and the Wizards are 1-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the 76ers and 2-3 for the Wizards (current streaks: 76ers W1, Wizards L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 21% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Wizards played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Justin Champagnie (Wizards), Tristan Vukcevic (Wizards), Jamir Watkins (Wizards), Jabari Walker (76ers), Tacko Fall (76ers) and Dominick Barlow (76ers)…. Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

On paper, the 76ers dominate this matchup. The model projects 76ers 119 – 108 Wizards, a margin of about 11.5 points in favor of the 76ers and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Wizards played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The 76ers will be without Jabari Walker or Tacko Fall (and 2 others). The Wizards will be without Justin Champagnie or Tristan Vukcevic (and 1 other).

The overall strength gap (+0.7 vs -7.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Wizards need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The 76ers' defense allows clearly fewer points (113.5 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge 76ers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)PHI +0.7 / WSH -7.7 per game

+8.5

Home-court advantage76ers at home

+2.3

Back-to-backWizards played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesPHI: 4 out, 1 questionable · WSH: 3 out, 1 questionable

-0.9

Expected marginfor 76ers

+11.5

Scenarios

76ers win by 10+

55%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

21%

Wizards win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

WSHPHI

113.1

Points scored / game

114.4

122.2

Points allowed / game

113.5

48.0 %

Field goal %

42.8 %

28.5 %

3-point %

32.6 %

31.6

3-pointers attempted / game

35.0

83.1 %

Free throw %

77.5 %

40.0

Rebounds / game

42.2

25.8

Assists / game

24.6

7.4

Steals / game

9.8

5.6

Blocks / game

5.6

13.6

Turnovers / game

12.6

Players to watch

Wizards

Anthony DavisF · #2321.8pts / game

Trae YoungG · #310.4assists

Anthony DavisF · #238.4rebounds

76ers

Tyrese MaxeyG · #028.4pts / game

LeBron JamesF · #236.8assists

Joel EmbiidC · #2110.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

WSH

128-116L

112-102W

124-120L

110-103L

121-111

PHI

106-100W

114-106W

127-116L

106-93W

114-109

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

WSH 18% · PHI 82%

ESPN BPI

WSH 22% · PHI 78%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

WSH		PHI
2-3	Record	4-1
113.1	Points scored / game	114.4
122.2	Points allowed / game	113.5
-7.7	Adjusted margin / game	+0.7
L2	Current streak	W1
2-3	Last 10 games	4-1
1-2 road	Home / road record	2-1 home
17-65 (-12.0)	Last season	45-37 (-0.2)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Wizards

Justin Champagnie FOut

Tristan Vukcevic FOut

Jamir Watkins GOut

Tre Johnson GDay-To-Day

Injury report 76ers

Jabari Walker FOut

Tacko Fall COut

Dominick Barlow FOut

Ariel Hukporti COut

Jaylen Brown GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.