Match analysis Today's games NBA standings EuroLeague Track record

Celtics vs Cavaliers prediction NBA · Thursday, April 1

Thu, Apr 1 · 7:00 PM ETRocket Arena · Prime Video

Boston Celtics

3-1 · away

Projected score

115-112

Cleveland Cavaliers

3-1 · home

59% win BOSwin CLE 41%

FavoriteBOS

Projected margin2.9

Projected total228

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Cleveland Cavaliers (3-1) host the Boston Celtics (3-1) on Thursday, April 1 at 7:00 PM ET at Rocket Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Celtics a 59% chance to win and projects a 115-112 score (Celtics – Cavaliers), about 228 total points. This season, the Cavaliers are 3-0 at home and the Celtics are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Cavaliers and 3-1 for the Celtics (current streaks: Cavaliers W3, Celtics W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Cavaliers played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Devin Carter (Celtics) and Meleek Thomas (Cavaliers). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

The Celtics are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Cavaliers 112 – 115 Celtics, a margin of about 2.9 points in favor of the Celtics and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Cavaliers played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Cavaliers will be without Meleek Thomas. The Celtics will be without Devin Carter. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Cavaliers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Cavaliers' offense (119.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Celtics' defense allows clearly fewer points (108.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Cavaliers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)CLE +3.0 / BOS +6.6 per game

-3.6

Home-court advantageCavaliers at home

+2.3

Back-to-backCavaliers played yesterday

-1.6

InjuriesCLE: 1 out, 0 questionable · BOS: 1 out, 0 questionable

0.0

Expected marginfor Cavaliers

-2.9

Scenarios

Cavaliers win by 10+

15%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

30%

Celtics win by 10+

28%

Stat comparison Current season

BOSCLE

116.1

Points scored / game

119.6

108.3

Points allowed / game

116.0

46.5 %

Field goal %

46.8 %

38.6 %

3-point %

36.7 %

41.5

3-pointers attempted / game

37.5

76.0 %

Free throw %

79.3 %

44.3

Rebounds / game

47.0

27.8

Assists / game

26.3

9.0

Steals / game

8.8

3.8

Blocks / game

7.5

15.5

Turnovers / game

17.3

Players to watch

Celtics

Jayson TatumF · #028.0pts / game

Jayson TatumF · #08.0assists

Jayson TatumF · #06.2rebounds

Cavaliers

Donovan MitchellG · #4524.8pts / game

James HardenG · #16.8assists

Evan MobleyC · #410.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

BOS

125-120 OTL DET

121-113W

107-103W

134-99W

125-124 OT

CLE

132-116L

114-106W

125-121W

127-125 OTW WSH

121-111

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

BOS 59% · CLE 41%

ESPN BPI

BOS 53% · CLE 47%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

BOS		CLE
3-1	Record	3-1
116.1	Points scored / game	119.6
108.3	Points allowed / game	116.0
+6.6	Adjusted margin / game	+3.0
W3	Current streak	W3
3-1	Last 10 games	3-1
0-1 road	Home / road record	3-0 home
56-26 (+7.7)	Last season	52-30 (+4.1)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Celtics

Devin Carter GOut

Injury report Cavaliers

Meleek Thomas GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.