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Cavaliers vs Celtics prediction NBA · Friday, February 26

Fri, Feb 26 · 7:30 PM ETTD Garden · ESPN, DAZN CLE

Cleveland Cavaliers

3-1 · away

Projected score

110-118

Boston Celtics

3-1 · home

28% win CLEwin BOS 72%

FavoriteBOS

Projected margin7.5

Projected total228

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Boston Celtics (3-1) host the Cleveland Cavaliers (3-1) on Friday, February 26 at 7:30 PM ET at TD Garden in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Celtics a 72% chance to win and projects a 110-118 score (Cavaliers – Celtics), about 228 total points. This season, the Celtics are 3-0 at home and the Cavaliers are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Celtics and 3-1 for the Cavaliers (current streaks: Celtics W3, Cavaliers W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 26% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Cavaliers played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Meleek Thomas (Cavaliers) and Devin Carter (Celtics). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Celtics start with a clear edge. The model projects Celtics 118 – 110 Cavaliers, a margin of about 7.5 points in favor of the Celtics and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Cavaliers played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Celtics will be without Devin Carter. The Cavaliers will be without Meleek Thomas. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Cavaliers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Cavaliers' offense (119.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Celtics' defense allows clearly fewer points (108.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Celtics

Team strength (adjusted point differential)BOS +6.6 / CLE +3.0 per game

+3.6

Home-court advantageCeltics at home

+2.3

Back-to-backCavaliers played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesBOS: 1 out, 0 questionable · CLE: 1 out, 0 questionable

0.0

Expected marginfor Celtics

+7.5

Scenarios

Celtics win by 10+

42%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

26%

Cavaliers win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

CLEBOS

119.6

Points scored / game

116.1

116.0

Points allowed / game

108.3

46.8 %

Field goal %

46.5 %

36.7 %

3-point %

38.6 %

37.5

3-pointers attempted / game

41.5

79.3 %

Free throw %

76.0 %

47.0

Rebounds / game

44.3

26.3

Assists / game

27.8

8.8

Steals / game

9.0

7.5

Blocks / game

3.8

17.3

Turnovers / game

15.5

Players to watch

Cavaliers

Donovan MitchellG · #4524.8pts / game

James HardenG · #16.8assists

Evan MobleyC · #410.0rebounds

Celtics

Jayson TatumF · #028.0pts / game

Jayson TatumF · #08.0assists

Jayson TatumF · #06.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

CLE

132-116L

114-106W

125-121W

127-125 OTW WSH

121-111

BOS

125-120 OTL DET

121-113W

107-103W

134-99W

125-124 OT

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

CLE 28% · BOS 72%

ESPN BPI

CLE 34% · BOS 66%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

CLE		BOS
3-1	Record	3-1
119.6	Points scored / game	116.1
116.0	Points allowed / game	108.3
+3.0	Adjusted margin / game	+6.6
W3	Current streak	W3
3-1	Last 10 games	3-1
0-1 road	Home / road record	3-0 home
52-30 (+4.1)	Last season	56-26 (+7.7)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Cavaliers

Meleek Thomas GOut

Injury report Celtics

Devin Carter GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.