Match analysis Today's games NBA standings EuroLeague Track record

Nuggets vs Mavericks prediction NBA · Wednesday, March 31

Wed, Mar 31 · 9:30 PM ETAmerican Airlines Center · ESPN, KFAA-TV, MavsTV

Denver Nuggets

2-2 · away

Projected score

117-113

Dallas Mavericks

3-2 · home

61% win DENwin DAL 39%

FavoriteDEN

Projected margin3.5

Projected total230

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Dallas Mavericks (3-2) host the Denver Nuggets (2-2) on Wednesday, March 31 at 9:30 PM ET at American Airlines Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Nuggets a 61% chance to win and projects a 117-113 score (Nuggets – Mavericks), about 230 total points. This season, the Mavericks are 1-1 at home and the Nuggets are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Mavericks and 2-2 for the Nuggets (current streaks: Mavericks W2, Nuggets W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Alpha Diallo (Nuggets), Cameron Johnson (Nuggets), Spencer Jones (Nuggets), Julian Strawther (Nuggets), Tarik Biberovic (Mavericks) and Santi Aldama (Mavericks)…. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Nuggets are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Mavericks 113 – 117 Nuggets, a margin of about 3.5 points in favor of the Nuggets and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Mavericks will be without Tarik Biberovic or Santi Aldama (and 2 others). The Nuggets will be without Alpha Diallo or Cameron Johnson (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-2.8 vs +2.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Nuggets' offense (119.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Mavericks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DAL -2.8 / DEN +2.6 per game

-5.4

Home-court advantageMavericks at home

+2.3

InjuriesDAL: 4 out, 1 questionable · DEN: 4 out, 0 questionable

-0.4

Expected marginfor Mavericks

-3.5

Scenarios

Mavericks win by 10+

14%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

30%

Nuggets win by 10+

30%

Stat comparison Current season

DENDAL

119.2

Points scored / game

114.1

116.2

Points allowed / game

117.4

45.8 %

Field goal %

49.0 %

32.8 %

3-point %

34.6 %

34.3

3-pointers attempted / game

38.2

79.6 %

Free throw %

76.7 %

44.5

Rebounds / game

44.2

26.0

Assists / game

27.6

10.0

Steals / game

9.0

4.8

Blocks / game

7.4

15.3

Turnovers / game

15.6

Players to watch

Nuggets

Jamal MurrayG · #2722.5pts / game

Nikola JokicC · #159.0assists

Nikola JokicC · #1510.5rebounds

Mavericks

Cooper FlaggF · #3225.2pts / game

Cooper FlaggF · #326.8assists

P.J. WashingtonF · #257.8rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DEN

121-106L

96-84W

141-135 OTL

134-114W

104-91

DAL

128-110W

121-105L

122-106W

113-109W

120-96

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DEN 61% · DAL 39%

ESPN BPI

DEN 53% · DAL 47%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

DEN		DAL
2-2	Record	3-2
119.2	Points scored / game	114.1
116.2	Points allowed / game	117.4
+2.6	Adjusted margin / game	-2.8
W1	Current streak	W2
2-2	Last 10 games	3-2
1-1 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
54-28 (+5.2)	Last season	26-56 (-5.5)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Nuggets

Alpha Diallo FOut

Cameron Johnson FOut

Spencer Jones FOut

Julian Strawther GOut

Injury report Mavericks

Tarik Biberovic FOut

Santi Aldama FOut

Sergio de Larrea FOut

Dereck Lively II COut

Naji Marshall FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.