Match analysis Today's games NBA standings EuroLeague Track record

Mavericks vs Nuggets prediction NBA · Thursday, February 4

Thu, Feb 4 · 10:00 PM ETBall Arena · Prime Video

Dallas Mavericks

3-2 · away

Projected score

111-119

Denver Nuggets

2-2 · home

26% win DALwin DEN 74%

FavoriteDEN

Projected margin8.1

Projected total230

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Denver Nuggets (2-2) host the Dallas Mavericks (3-2) on Thursday, February 4 at 10:00 PM ET at Ball Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Nuggets a 74% chance to win and projects a 111-119 score (Mavericks – Nuggets), about 230 total points. This season, the Nuggets are 1-1 at home and the Mavericks are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-2 for the Nuggets and 3-2 for the Mavericks (current streaks: Nuggets W1, Mavericks W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 26% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Tarik Biberovic (Mavericks), Santi Aldama (Mavericks), Sergio de Larrea (Mavericks), Dereck Lively II (Mavericks), Alpha Diallo (Nuggets) and Cameron Johnson (Nuggets)…. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Nuggets dominate this matchup. The model projects Nuggets 119 – 111 Mavericks, a margin of about 8.1 points in favor of the Nuggets and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Nuggets will be without Alpha Diallo or Cameron Johnson (and 2 others). The Mavericks will be without Tarik Biberovic or Santi Aldama (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+2.6 vs -2.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Nuggets' offense (119.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Nuggets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DEN +2.6 / DAL -2.8 per game

+5.4

Home-court advantageNuggets at home

+2.3

InjuriesDEN: 4 out, 0 questionable · DAL: 4 out, 1 questionable

+0.4

Expected marginfor Nuggets

+8.1

Scenarios

Nuggets win by 10+

44%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

26%

Mavericks win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

DALDEN

114.1

Points scored / game

119.2

117.4

Points allowed / game

116.2

49.0 %

Field goal %

45.8 %

34.6 %

3-point %

32.8 %

38.2

3-pointers attempted / game

34.3

76.7 %

Free throw %

79.6 %

44.2

Rebounds / game

44.5

27.6

Assists / game

26.0

9.0

Steals / game

10.0

7.4

Blocks / game

4.8

15.6

Turnovers / game

15.3

Players to watch

Mavericks

Cooper FlaggF · #3225.2pts / game

Cooper FlaggF · #326.8assists

P.J. WashingtonF · #257.8rebounds

Nuggets

Jamal MurrayG · #2722.5pts / game

Nikola JokicC · #159.0assists

Nikola JokicC · #1510.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DAL

128-110W

121-105L

122-106W

113-109W

120-96

DEN

121-106L

96-84W

141-135 OTL

134-114W

104-91

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DAL 26% · DEN 74%

ESPN BPI

DAL 36% · DEN 64%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

DAL		DEN
3-2	Record	2-2
114.1	Points scored / game	119.2
117.4	Points allowed / game	116.2
-2.8	Adjusted margin / game	+2.6
W2	Current streak	W1
3-2	Last 10 games	2-2
2-1 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
26-56 (-5.5)	Last season	54-28 (+5.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Mavericks

Tarik Biberovic FOut

Santi Aldama FOut

Sergio de Larrea FOut

Dereck Lively II COut

Naji Marshall FDay-To-Day

Injury report Nuggets

Alpha Diallo FOut

Cameron Johnson FOut

Spencer Jones FOut

Julian Strawther GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.