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Pelicans vs Bucks prediction NBA · Wednesday, March 31

Wed, Mar 31 · 8:00 PM ETFiserv Forum · MyMi, Bucks App, GCSEN, Pelicans.com

New Orleans Pelicans

0-4 · away

Projected score

115-117

Milwaukee Bucks

1-4 · home

42% win NOwin MIL 58%

FavoriteMIL

Projected margin2.7

Projected total232

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Milwaukee Bucks (1-4) host the New Orleans Pelicans (0-4) on Wednesday, March 31 at 8:00 PM ET at Fiserv Forum in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Bucks a 58% chance to win and projects a 115-117 score (Pelicans – Bucks), about 232 total points. This season, the Bucks are 1-2 at home and the Pelicans are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Bucks and 0-4 for the Pelicans (current streaks: Bucks L1, Pelicans L4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Dejounte Murray (Pelicans), Jordan Poole (Pelicans) and Yves Missi (Pelicans). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Bucks, but the Pelicans have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Bucks 117 – 115 Pelicans, a margin of about 2.7 points in favor of the Bucks and a total around 232 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Pelicans will be without Dejounte Murray or Jordan Poole (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Pelicans need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Pelicans' offense (115.7 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Bucks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIL -6.4 / NO -4.1 per game

-2.3

Home-court advantageBucks at home

+2.3

InjuriesMIL: 0 out, 0 questionable · NO: 3 out, 0 questionable

+2.7

Expected marginfor Bucks

+2.7

Scenarios

Bucks win by 10+

28%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

30%

Pelicans win by 10+

16%

Stat comparison Current season

NOMIL

115.7

Points scored / game

111.4

120.5

Points allowed / game

119.0

46.5 %

Field goal %

44.9 %

29.0 %

3-point %

34.0 %

31.0

3-pointers attempted / game

41.2

83.6 %

Free throw %

71.6 %

44.3

Rebounds / game

49.8

23.5

Assists / game

24.6

12.3

Steals / game

5.8

4.8

Blocks / game

4.0

16.5

Turnovers / game

16.8

Players to watch

Pelicans

Zion WilliamsonF · #121.8pts / game

Dejounte MurrayG · #56.0assists

Derik QueenC · #229.2rebounds

Bucks

Tyler HerroG · #1123.4pts / game

Tyler HerroG · #114.6assists

Kel'el WareC · #98.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

107-106L

123-120L

120-119L

141-135 OTL DEN

104-91

MIL

128-116L

132-125L

127-116W

110-102L

132-100

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

NO 42% · MIL 58%

ESPN BPI

NO 53% · MIL 47%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

NO		MIL
0-4	Record	1-4
115.7	Points scored / game	111.4
120.5	Points allowed / game	119.0
-4.1	Adjusted margin / game	-6.4
L4	Current streak	L1
0-4	Last 10 games	1-4
0-2 road	Home / road record	1-2 home
26-56 (-4.5)	Last season	32-50 (-6.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Pelicans

Dejounte Murray GOut

Jordan Poole GOut

Yves Missi COut

Injury report Bucks

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.