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Bucks vs Pelicans prediction NBA · Friday, March 5

Fri, Mar 5 · 8:00 PM ETSmoothie King Center · GCSEN, Pelicans.com, MyMi, Bucks App

Milwaukee Bucks

1-4 · away

Projected score

115-117

New Orleans Pelicans

0-4 · home

44% win MILwin NO 56%

FavoriteNO

Projected margin1.9

Projected total232

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The New Orleans Pelicans (0-4) host the Milwaukee Bucks (1-4) on Friday, March 5 at 8:00 PM ET at Smoothie King Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Pelicans a 56% chance to win and projects a 115-117 score (Bucks – Pelicans), about 232 total points. This season, the Pelicans are 0-2 at home and the Bucks are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Pelicans and 1-4 for the Bucks (current streaks: Pelicans L4, Bucks L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Dejounte Murray (Pelicans), Jordan Poole (Pelicans) and Yves Missi (Pelicans). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Pelicans 117 – 115 Bucks, a margin of about 1.9 points in favor of the Pelicans and a total around 232 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Pelicans will be without Dejounte Murray or Jordan Poole (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Bucks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Pelicans' offense (115.7 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Pelicans

Team strength (adjusted point differential)NO -4.1 / MIL -6.4 per game

+2.3

Home-court advantagePelicans at home

+2.3

InjuriesNO: 3 out, 0 questionable · MIL: 0 out, 0 questionable

-2.7

Expected marginfor Pelicans

+1.9

Scenarios

Pelicans win by 10+

26%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Bucks win by 10+

17%

Stat comparison Current season

MILNO

111.4

Points scored / game

115.7

119.0

Points allowed / game

120.5

44.9 %

Field goal %

46.5 %

34.0 %

3-point %

29.0 %

41.2

3-pointers attempted / game

31.0

71.6 %

Free throw %

83.6 %

49.8

Rebounds / game

44.3

24.6

Assists / game

23.5

5.8

Steals / game

12.3

4.0

Blocks / game

4.8

16.8

Turnovers / game

16.5

Players to watch

Bucks

Tyler HerroG · #1123.4pts / game

Tyler HerroG · #114.6assists

Kel'el WareC · #98.4rebounds

Pelicans

Zion WilliamsonF · #121.8pts / game

Dejounte MurrayG · #56.0assists

Derik QueenC · #229.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MIL

128-116L

132-125L

127-116W

110-102L

132-100

107-106L

123-120L

120-119L

141-135 OTL DEN

104-91

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MIL 44% · NO 56%

ESPN BPI

MIL 38% · NO 62%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MIL		NO
1-4	Record	0-4
111.4	Points scored / game	115.7
119.0	Points allowed / game	120.5
-6.4	Adjusted margin / game	-4.1
L1	Current streak	L4
1-4	Last 10 games	0-4
0-2 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
32-50 (-6.2)	Last season	26-56 (-4.5)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Bucks

No injuries reported.

Injury report Pelicans

Dejounte Murray GOut

Jordan Poole GOut

Yves Missi COut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.