Match analysis Today's games NBA standings EuroLeague Track record

Warriors vs 76ers prediction NBA · Wednesday, March 31

Wed, Mar 31 · 7:00 PM ETXfinity Mobile Arena · ESPN

Golden State Warriors

2-3 · away

Projected score

112-115

Philadelphia 76ers

4-1 · home

41% win GSwin PHI 59%

FavoritePHI

Projected margin2.9

Projected total227

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Philadelphia 76ers (4-1) host the Golden State Warriors (2-3) on Wednesday, March 31 at 7:00 PM ET at Xfinity Mobile Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the 76ers a 59% chance to win and projects a 112-115 score (Warriors – 76ers), about 227 total points. This season, the 76ers are 2-1 at home and the Warriors are 2-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the 76ers and 2-3 for the Warriors (current streaks: 76ers W1, Warriors W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Kristaps Porzingis (Warriors), Moses Moody (Warriors), Jimmy Butler III (Warriors), Jabari Walker (76ers), Tacko Fall (76ers) and Dominick Barlow (76ers)…. Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

The 76ers are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects 76ers 115 – 112 Warriors, a margin of about 2.9 points in favor of the 76ers and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The 76ers will be without Jabari Walker or Tacko Fall (and 2 others). The Warriors will be without Kristaps Porzingis or Moses Moody (and 1 other).

The Warriors need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge 76ers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)PHI +0.7 / GS -0.8 per game

+1.5

Home-court advantage76ers at home

+2.3

InjuriesPHI: 4 out, 1 questionable · GS: 3 out, 1 questionable

-0.9

Expected marginfor 76ers

+2.9

Scenarios

76ers win by 10+

29%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

30%

Warriors win by 10+

15%

Stat comparison Current season

GSPHI

115.5

Points scored / game

114.4

116.4

Points allowed / game

113.5

45.0 %

Field goal %

42.8 %

36.9 %

3-point %

32.6 %

39.0

3-pointers attempted / game

35.0

82.2 %

Free throw %

77.5 %

43.8

Rebounds / game

42.2

25.6

Assists / game

24.6

9.6

Steals / game

9.8

3.8

Blocks / game

5.6

16.8

Turnovers / game

12.6

Players to watch

Warriors

Stephen CurryG · #3028.8pts / game

Draymond GreenF · #236.8assists

Yaxel LendeborgF · #19.2rebounds

76ers

Tyrese MaxeyG · #028.4pts / game

LeBron JamesF · #236.8assists

Joel EmbiidC · #2110.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

127-105L

111-108L

131-122W

134-114W

119-114

PHI

106-100W

114-106W

127-116L

106-93W

114-109

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

GS 41% · PHI 59%

ESPN BPI

GS 41% · PHI 59%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

GS		PHI
2-3	Record	4-1
115.5	Points scored / game	114.4
116.4	Points allowed / game	113.5
-0.8	Adjusted margin / game	+0.7
W2	Current streak	W1
2-3	Last 10 games	4-1
2-2 road	Home / road record	2-1 home
37-45 (-0.6)	Last season	45-37 (-0.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Warriors

Kristaps Porzingis COut

Moses Moody GOut

Jimmy Butler III FOut

Gui Santos FDay-To-Day

Injury report 76ers

Jabari Walker FOut

Tacko Fall COut

Dominick Barlow FOut

Ariel Hukporti COut

Jaylen Brown GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.