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Clippers vs Hawks prediction NBA · Wednesday, March 31

Wed, Mar 31 · 7:00 PM ETState Farm Arena · ClipperVision

LA Clippers

1-3 · away

Projected score

110-117

Atlanta Hawks

3-3 · home

28% win LACwin ATL 72%

FavoriteATL

Projected margin7.3

Projected total227

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Atlanta Hawks (2-3) host the LA Clippers (1-3) on Wednesday, March 31 at 7:00 PM ET at State Farm Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Hawks a 72% chance to win and projects a 110-117 score (Clippers – Hawks), about 227 total points. This season, the Hawks are 0-2 at home and the Clippers are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Hawks and 1-3 for the Clippers (current streaks: Hawks L3, Clippers L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 26% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Yanic Konan Niederhauser (Clippers), Max Strus (Clippers), Brandon Ingram (Clippers), Bradley Beal (Clippers), Jordan Miller (Clippers) and Mouhamed Gueye (Hawks)…. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Hawks start with a clear edge. The model projects Hawks 117 – 110 Clippers, a margin of about 7.3 points in favor of the Hawks and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Hawks will be without Mouhamed Gueye or Henri Veesaar. The Clippers will be without Yanic Konan Niederhauser or Max Strus (and 3 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Clippers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Hawks' offense (119.0 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Clippers' defense allows clearly fewer points (111.5 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Hawks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)ATL +2.7 / LAC +0.4 per game

+2.3

Home-court advantageHawks at home

+2.3

InjuriesATL: 2 out, 0 questionable · LAC: 5 out, 1 questionable

+2.7

Expected marginfor Hawks

+7.3

Scenarios

Hawks win by 10+

41%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

26%

Clippers win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

LACATL

112.0

Points scored / game

119.0

111.5

Points allowed / game

115.8

45.9 %

Field goal %

46.9 %

39.0 %

3-point %

34.8 %

35.3

3-pointers attempted / game

41.4

78.6 %

Free throw %

72.8 %

40.8

Rebounds / game

41.4

25.0

Assists / game

32.2

12.5

Steals / game

10.2

4.5

Blocks / game

3.6

23.0

Turnovers / game

14.0

Players to watch

Clippers

Darius GarlandG · #1021.5pts / game

Darius GarlandG · #106.5assists

Rui HachimuraF · #286.0rebounds

Hawks

Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #719.6pts / game

Jalen JohnsonF · #18.8assists

Jalen JohnsonF · #19.6rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

LAC

122-110W

121-96L

125-117L

108-101L

103-87

ATL

128-81L

121-114L

120-110L

129-117W

114-111

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

LAC 28% · ATL 72%

ESPN BPI

LAC 28% · ATL 72%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

LAC		ATL
1-3	Record	2-3
112.0	Points scored / game	119.0
111.5	Points allowed / game	115.8
+0.4	Adjusted margin / game	+2.7
L3	Current streak	L3
1-3	Last 10 games	2-3
0-2 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
42-40 (+1.1)	Last season	46-36 (+2.4)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Clippers

Yanic Konan Niederhauser COut

Max Strus GOut

Brandon Ingram FOut

Bradley Beal GOut

Jordan Miller GOut

Rui Hachimura FDay-To-Day

Injury report Hawks

Mouhamed Gueye FOut

Henri Veesaar COut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.