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Hawks vs Clippers prediction NBA · Saturday, March 20

Sat, Mar 20 · 10:30 PM ETIntuit Dome · ClipperVision

Atlanta Hawks

3-3 · away

Projected score

113-112

LA Clippers

1-3 · home

53% win ATLwin LAC 47%

FavoriteATL

Projected margin1.1

Projected total225

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The LA Clippers (1-3) host the Atlanta Hawks (2-3) on Saturday, March 20 at 10:30 PM ET at Intuit Dome in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Hawks a 53% chance to win and projects a 113-112 score (Hawks – Clippers), about 225 total points. This season, the Clippers are 1-1 at home and the Hawks are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-3 for the Clippers and 2-3 for the Hawks (current streaks: Clippers L3, Hawks L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Hawks played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Mouhamed Gueye (Hawks), Henri Veesaar (Hawks), Yanic Konan Niederhauser (Clippers), Max Strus (Clippers), Brandon Ingram (Clippers) and Bradley Beal (Clippers)…. Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Clippers 112 – 113 Hawks, a margin of about 1.1 points in favor of the Hawks and a total around 225 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Hawks played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Clippers will be without Yanic Konan Niederhauser or Max Strus (and 3 others). The Hawks will be without Mouhamed Gueye or Henri Veesaar. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Clippers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Hawks' offense (119.0 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Clippers' defense allows clearly fewer points (111.5 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Clippers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)LAC +0.4 / ATL +2.7 per game

-2.3

Home-court advantageClippers at home

+2.3

Back-to-backHawks played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesLAC: 5 out, 1 questionable · ATL: 2 out, 0 questionable

-2.7

Expected marginfor Clippers

-1.1

Scenarios

Clippers win by 10+

19%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Hawks win by 10+

24%

Stat comparison Current season

ATLLAC

119.0

Points scored / game

112.0

115.8

Points allowed / game

111.5

46.9 %

Field goal %

45.9 %

34.8 %

3-point %

39.0 %

41.4

3-pointers attempted / game

35.3

72.8 %

Free throw %

78.6 %

41.4

Rebounds / game

40.8

32.2

Assists / game

25.0

10.2

Steals / game

12.5

3.6

Blocks / game

4.5

14.0

Turnovers / game

23.0

Players to watch

Hawks

Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #719.6pts / game

Jalen JohnsonF · #18.8assists

Jalen JohnsonF · #19.6rebounds

Clippers

Darius GarlandG · #1021.5pts / game

Darius GarlandG · #106.5assists

Rui HachimuraF · #286.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

ATL

128-81L

121-114L

120-110L

129-117W

114-111

LAC

122-110W

121-96L

125-117L

108-101L

103-87

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

ATL 53% · LAC 47%

ESPN BPI

ATL 62% · LAC 38%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

ATL		LAC
2-3	Record	1-3
119.0	Points scored / game	112.0
115.8	Points allowed / game	111.5
+2.7	Adjusted margin / game	+0.4
L3	Current streak	L3
2-3	Last 10 games	1-3
2-1 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
46-36 (+2.4)	Last season	42-40 (+1.1)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Hawks

Mouhamed Gueye FOut

Henri Veesaar COut

Injury report Clippers

Yanic Konan Niederhauser COut

Max Strus GOut

Brandon Ingram FOut

Bradley Beal GOut

Jordan Miller GOut

Rui Hachimura FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.