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Thunder vs Jazz prediction NBA · Tuesday, March 30

Tue, Mar 30 · 9:00 PM ETDelta Center · KSBI, Thunder App, KJZZ-TV, Jazz+
Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder
4-1 · away
Projected score
120-109
Utah Jazz
Utah Jazz
1-4 · home
81% win OKCwin UTAH 19%
FavoriteOKC
Projected margin10.9
Projected total229
ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Utah Jazz (1-4) host the Oklahoma City Thunder (4-1) on Tuesday, March 30 at 9:00 PM ET at Delta Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Thunder a 81% chance to win and projects a 120-109 score (Thunder – Jazz), about 229 total points. This season, the Jazz are 1-3 at home and the Thunder are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Jazz and 4-1 for the Thunder (current streaks: Jazz L3, Thunder L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 22% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jalen Williams (Thunder), Alex Caruso (Thunder), Thomas Sorber (Thunder), Nikola Topic (Thunder), Cason Wallace (Thunder) and Jaren Jackson Jr. (Jazz)…. Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

The Thunder start with a clear edge. The model projects Jazz 109 – 120 Thunder, a margin of about 10.9 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Jazz will be without Jaren Jackson Jr. or Trey Alexander (and 1 other). The Thunder will be without Jalen Williams or Alex Caruso (and 3 others).

  • The overall strength gap (-7.0 vs +7.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Jazz need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (106.9 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Jazz
Team strength (adjusted point differential)UTAH -7.0 / OKC +7.6 per game
-14.6
Home-court advantageJazz at home
+2.3
InjuriesUTAH: 3 out, 1 questionable · OKC: 5 out, 1 questionable
+1.4
Expected marginfor Jazz
-10.9

Scenarios

Jazz win by 10+
5%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
22%
Thunder win by 10+
53%

Stat comparison Current season

OKCUTAH
115.8
Points scored / game
116.1
106.9
Points allowed / game
124.3
44.0 %
Field goal %
45.4 %
30.9 %
3-point %
33.9 %
32.4
3-pointers attempted / game
34.8
86.4 %
Free throw %
76.6 %
46.0
Rebounds / game
46.8
22.0
Assists / game
26.8
8.4
Steals / game
5.0
6.8
Blocks / game
6.4
13.6
Turnovers / game
17.0

Players to watch

Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #226.0pts / game
Alex CarusoG · #93.8assists
Isaiah HartensteinC · #559.6rebounds
Jazz
Keyonte GeorgeG · #324.4pts / game
Keyonte GeorgeG · #36.8assists
Ace BaileyG · #198.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
OKC
WSA116-104WDEN96-84WLAC108-101WPHX125-114LDAL120-96
UTAH
LMEM123-103WNO120-119LLAL132-123LMEM110-105LSA117-111 OT

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Jan 2UTAHupcomingOKCJan 15UTAHupcomingOKCMar 30OKCthis gameUTAHApr 6OKCupcomingUTAH

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
OKC 81% · UTAH 19%
ESPN BPI
OKC 74% · UTAH 26%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

OKCUTAH
4-1Record1-4
115.8Points scored / game116.1
106.9Points allowed / game124.3
+7.6Adjusted margin / game-7.0
L1Current streakL3
4-1Last 10 games1-4
1-1 roadHome / road record1-3 home
64-18 (+11.1)Last season22-60 (-8.4)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Oklahoma City Thunder Injury report Thunder

Jalen Williams GOut
Alex Caruso GOut
Thomas Sorber COut
Nikola Topic GOut
Cason Wallace GOut
Chet Holmgren CDay-To-Day

Utah Jazz Injury report Jazz

Jaren Jackson Jr. FOut
Trey Alexander GOut
Jusuf Nurkic COut
Lauri Markkanen FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.