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Jazz vs Thunder prediction NBA · Saturday, January 2

Sat, Jan 2 · 8:00 PM ETPaycom Center · KSBI, Thunder App, KJZZ-TV, Jazz+
Utah Jazz
Utah Jazz
1-4 · away
Projected score
105-122
Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder
4-1 · home
9% win UTAHwin OKC 91%
FavoriteOKC
Projected margin17.1
Projected total227
ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Oklahoma City Thunder (4-1) host the Utah Jazz (1-4) on Saturday, January 2 at 8:00 PM ET at Paycom Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Thunder a 91% chance to win and projects a 105-122 score (Jazz – Thunder), about 227 total points. This season, the Thunder are 3-0 at home and the Jazz are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Thunder and 1-4 for the Jazz (current streaks: Thunder L1, Jazz L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 13% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Jazz played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Jaren Jackson Jr. (Jazz), Trey Alexander (Jazz), Jusuf Nurkic (Jazz), Jalen Williams (Thunder), Alex Caruso (Thunder) and Thomas Sorber (Thunder)…. Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Thunder dominate this matchup. The model projects Thunder 122 – 105 Jazz, a margin of about 17.1 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Jazz played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Thunder will be without Jalen Williams or Alex Caruso (and 3 others). The Jazz will be without Jaren Jackson Jr. or Trey Alexander (and 1 other).

  • The overall strength gap (+7.6 vs -7.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Jazz need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (106.9 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Thunder
Team strength (adjusted point differential)OKC +7.6 / UTAH -7.0 per game
+14.6
Home-court advantageThunder at home
+2.3
Back-to-backJazz played yesterday
+1.6
InjuriesOKC: 5 out, 1 questionable · UTAH: 3 out, 1 questionable
-1.4
Expected marginfor Thunder
+17.1

Scenarios

Thunder win by 10+
71%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
13%
Jazz win by 10+
2%

Stat comparison Current season

UTAHOKC
116.1
Points scored / game
115.8
124.3
Points allowed / game
106.9
45.4 %
Field goal %
44.0 %
33.9 %
3-point %
30.9 %
34.8
3-pointers attempted / game
32.4
76.6 %
Free throw %
86.4 %
46.8
Rebounds / game
46.0
26.8
Assists / game
22.0
5.0
Steals / game
8.4
6.4
Blocks / game
6.8
17.0
Turnovers / game
13.6

Players to watch

Jazz
Keyonte GeorgeG · #324.4pts / game
Keyonte GeorgeG · #36.8assists
Ace BaileyG · #198.0rebounds
Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #226.0pts / game
Alex CarusoG · #93.8assists
Isaiah HartensteinC · #559.6rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
UTAH
LMEM123-103WNO120-119LLAL132-123LMEM110-105LSA117-111 OT
OKC
WSA116-104WDEN96-84WLAC108-101WPHX125-114LDAL120-96

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Jan 2UTAHthis gameOKCJan 15UTAHupcomingOKCMar 30OKCupcomingUTAHApr 6OKCupcomingUTAH

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
UTAH 9% · OKC 91%
ESPN BPI
UTAH 17% · OKC 83%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

UTAHOKC
1-4Record4-1
116.1Points scored / game115.8
124.3Points allowed / game106.9
-7.0Adjusted margin / game+7.6
L3Current streakL1
1-4Last 10 games4-1
0-1 roadHome / road record3-0 home
22-60 (-8.4)Last season64-18 (+11.1)
YesPlayed yesterdayNo

Utah Jazz Injury report Jazz

Jaren Jackson Jr. FOut
Trey Alexander GOut
Jusuf Nurkic COut
Lauri Markkanen FDay-To-Day

Oklahoma City Thunder Injury report Thunder

Jalen Williams GOut
Alex Caruso GOut
Thomas Sorber COut
Nikola Topic GOut
Cason Wallace GOut
Chet Holmgren CDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.