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Lakers vs Grizzlies prediction NBA · Tuesday, March 30

Tue, Mar 30 · 8:00 PM ETFedExForum · Spectrum Sports Net, Spectrum Sports Net +, DAZN MEM

Los Angeles Lakers

4-1 · away

Projected score

116-115

Memphis Grizzlies

4-0 · home

52% win LALwin MEM 48%

FavoriteLAL

Projected margin0.8

Projected total232

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Memphis Grizzlies (4-0) host the Los Angeles Lakers (4-1) on Tuesday, March 30 at 8:00 PM ET at FedExForum in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Lakers a 52% chance to win and projects a 116-115 score (Lakers – Grizzlies), about 232 total points. This season, the Grizzlies are 1-0 at home and the Lakers are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-0 for the Grizzlies and 4-1 for the Lakers (current streaks: Grizzlies W4, Lakers W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Cameron Carr (Lakers) and Adou Thiero (Lakers). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Grizzlies 115 – 116 Lakers, a margin of about 0.8 points in favor of the Lakers and a total around 232 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Lakers will be without Cameron Carr or Adou Thiero. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-1.8 vs +3.5 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Grizzlies need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Lakers' offense (118.4 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Grizzlies

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MEM -1.8 / LAL +3.5 per game

-5.2

Home-court advantageGrizzlies at home

+2.3

InjuriesMEM: 0 out, 0 questionable · LAL: 2 out, 1 questionable

+2.1

Expected marginfor Grizzlies

-0.8

Scenarios

Grizzlies win by 10+

19%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Lakers win by 10+

23%

Stat comparison Current season

LALMEM

118.4

Points scored / game

115.2

114.3

Points allowed / game

117.3

52.9 %

Field goal %

45.3 %

39.2 %

3-point %

39.1 %

36.2

3-pointers attempted / game

37.8

79.1 %

Free throw %

82.8 %

38.0

Rebounds / game

50.0

24.0

Assists / game

25.0

10.8

Steals / game

6.3

5.8

Blocks / game

6.3

16.6

Turnovers / game

15.5

Players to watch

Lakers

Luka DoncicG · #7736.0pts / game

Luka DoncicG · #778.2assists

Walker KesslerC · #148.2rebounds

Grizzlies

Ty JeromeG · #229.8pts / game

Ty JeromeG · #26.5assists

Cameron BoozerF · #2710.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

LAL

127-105W

125-117W

132-123L

136-129W

103-87

MEM

116-98W

123-103W

111-108W

123-112W

110-105

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

LAL 52% · MEM 48%

ESPN BPI

LAL 64% · MEM 36%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

LAL		MEM
4-1	Record	4-0
118.4	Points scored / game	115.2
114.3	Points allowed / game	117.3
+3.5	Adjusted margin / game	-1.8
W1	Current streak	W4
4-1	Last 10 games	4-0
2-0 road	Home / road record	1-0 home
53-29 (+1.8)	Last season	25-57 (-6.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Lakers

Cameron Carr GOut

Adou Thiero FOut

Ziaire Williams FDay-To-Day

Injury report Grizzlies

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.