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Grizzlies vs Lakers prediction NBA · Sunday, December 27

Sun, Dec 27 · 9:00 PM ETcrypto.com Arena · Spectrum Sports Net, Spectrum Sports Net +, DAZN MEM

Memphis Grizzlies

4-0 · away

Projected score

112-119

Los Angeles Lakers

4-1 · home

29% win MEMwin LAL 71%

FavoriteLAL

Projected margin7.0

Projected total230

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Los Angeles Lakers (4-1) host the Memphis Grizzlies (4-0) on Sunday, December 27 at 9:00 PM ET at crypto.com Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Lakers a 71% chance to win and projects a 112-119 score (Grizzlies – Lakers), about 230 total points. This season, the Lakers are 2-1 at home and the Grizzlies are 3-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Lakers and 4-0 for the Grizzlies (current streaks: Lakers W1, Grizzlies W4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 27% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Grizzlies played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Cameron Carr (Lakers) and Adou Thiero (Lakers). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Lakers are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Lakers 119 – 112 Grizzlies, a margin of about 7.0 points in favor of the Lakers and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Grizzlies played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Lakers will be without Cameron Carr or Adou Thiero. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+3.5 vs -1.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Grizzlies need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Lakers' offense (118.4 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Lakers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)LAL +3.5 / MEM -1.8 per game

+5.2

Home-court advantageLakers at home

+2.3

Back-to-backGrizzlies played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesLAL: 2 out, 1 questionable · MEM: 0 out, 0 questionable

-2.1

Expected marginfor Lakers

+7.0

Scenarios

Lakers win by 10+

40%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

27%

Grizzlies win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

MEMLAL

115.2

Points scored / game

118.4

117.3

Points allowed / game

114.3

45.3 %

Field goal %

52.9 %

39.1 %

3-point %

39.2 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

36.2

82.8 %

Free throw %

79.1 %

50.0

Rebounds / game

38.0

25.0

Assists / game

24.0

6.3

Steals / game

10.8

6.3

Blocks / game

5.8

15.5

Turnovers / game

16.6

Players to watch

Grizzlies

Ty JeromeG · #229.8pts / game

Ty JeromeG · #26.5assists

Cameron BoozerF · #2710.5rebounds

Lakers

Luka DoncicG · #7736.0pts / game

Luka DoncicG · #778.2assists

Walker KesslerC · #148.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MEM

116-98W

123-103W

111-108W

123-112W

110-105

LAL

127-105W

125-117W

132-123L

136-129W

103-87

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MEM 29% · LAL 71%

ESPN BPI

MEM 25% · LAL 75%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MEM		LAL
4-0	Record	4-1
115.2	Points scored / game	118.4
117.3	Points allowed / game	114.3
-1.8	Adjusted margin / game	+3.5
W4	Current streak	W1
4-0	Last 10 games	4-1
3-0 road	Home / road record	2-1 home
25-57 (-6.0)	Last season	53-29 (+1.8)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Grizzlies

No injuries reported.

Injury report Lakers

Cameron Carr GOut

Adou Thiero FOut

Ziaire Williams FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.