Match analysis Today's games NBA standings EuroLeague Track record

Celtics vs Pacers prediction NBA · Tuesday, March 30

Tue, Mar 30 · 8:00 PM ETGainbridge Fieldhouse · DAZN IND

Boston Celtics

3-1 · away

Projected score

119-105

Indiana Pacers

2-3 · home

87% win BOSwin IND 13%

FavoriteBOS

Projected margin14.2

Projected total225

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Indiana Pacers (2-3) host the Boston Celtics (3-1) on Tuesday, March 30 at 8:00 PM ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Celtics a 87% chance to win and projects a 119-105 score (Celtics – Pacers), about 225 total points. This season, the Pacers are 0-2 at home and the Celtics are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Pacers and 3-1 for the Celtics (current streaks: Pacers L2, Celtics W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 17% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Pacers played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Devin Carter (Celtics), Ivica Zubac (Pacers), T.J. McConnell (Pacers), Ben Sheppard (Pacers), Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers) and Johnny Furphy (Pacers). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Celtics dominate this matchup. The model projects Pacers 105 – 119 Celtics, a margin of about 14.2 points in favor of the Celtics and a total around 225 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pacers played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Pacers will be without Ivica Zubac or T.J. McConnell (and 3 others). The Celtics will be without Devin Carter. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-4.7 vs +6.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Pacers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Celtics' defense allows clearly fewer points (108.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Pacers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)IND -4.7 / BOS +6.6 per game

-11.3

Home-court advantagePacers at home

+2.3

Back-to-backPacers played yesterday

-1.6

InjuriesIND: 5 out, 2 questionable · BOS: 1 out, 0 questionable

-3.6

Expected marginfor Pacers

-14.2

Scenarios

Pacers win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

17%

Celtics win by 10+

63%

Stat comparison Current season

BOSIND

116.1

Points scored / game

113.2

108.3

Points allowed / game

118.8

46.5 %

Field goal %

47.1 %

38.6 %

3-point %

31.2 %

41.5

3-pointers attempted / game

37.8

76.0 %

Free throw %

72.7 %

44.3

Rebounds / game

44.0

27.8

Assists / game

29.4

9.0

Steals / game

6.4

3.8

Blocks / game

4.8

15.5

Turnovers / game

14.8

Players to watch

Celtics

Jayson TatumF · #028.0pts / game

Jayson TatumF · #08.0assists

Jayson TatumF · #06.2rebounds

Pacers

Pascal SiakamF · #4324.0pts / game

Tyrese HaliburtonG · #09.5assists

Ivica ZubacC · #409.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

BOS

125-120 OTL DET

121-113W

107-103W

134-99W

125-124 OT

IND

123-120L

121-105W

136-109L

110-102L

114-109

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

BOS 87% · IND 13%

ESPN BPI

BOS 60% · IND 40%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

BOS		IND
3-1	Record	2-3
116.1	Points scored / game	113.2
108.3	Points allowed / game	118.8
+6.6	Adjusted margin / game	-4.7
W3	Current streak	L2
3-1	Last 10 games	2-3
0-1 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
56-26 (+7.7)	Last season	19-63 (-8.0)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Celtics

Devin Carter GOut

Injury report Pacers

Ivica Zubac COut

T.J. McConnell GOut

Ben Sheppard GOut

Tyrese Haliburton GOut

Johnny Furphy GOut

Andrew Nembhard GDay-To-Day

Aaron Nesmith GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.