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Pacers vs Celtics prediction NBA · Wednesday, January 20

Wed, Jan 20 · 7:30 PM ETTD Garden · DAZN IND

Indiana Pacers

2-3 · away

Projected score

103-122

Boston Celtics

3-1 · home

7% win INDwin BOS 93%

FavoriteBOS

Projected margin18.8

Projected total225

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Boston Celtics (3-1) host the Indiana Pacers (2-3) on Wednesday, January 20 at 7:30 PM ET at TD Garden in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Celtics a 93% chance to win and projects a 103-122 score (Pacers – Celtics), about 225 total points. This season, the Celtics are 3-0 at home and the Pacers are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Celtics and 2-3 for the Pacers (current streaks: Celtics W3, Pacers L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 11% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Pacers played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Ivica Zubac (Pacers), T.J. McConnell (Pacers), Ben Sheppard (Pacers), Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers), Johnny Furphy (Pacers) and Devin Carter (Celtics). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Celtics dominate this matchup. The model projects Celtics 122 – 103 Pacers, a margin of about 18.8 points in favor of the Celtics and a total around 225 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pacers played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Celtics will be without Devin Carter. The Pacers will be without Ivica Zubac or T.J. McConnell (and 3 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+6.6 vs -4.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Pacers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Celtics' defense allows clearly fewer points (108.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Celtics

Team strength (adjusted point differential)BOS +6.6 / IND -4.7 per game

+11.3

Home-court advantageCeltics at home

+2.3

Back-to-backPacers played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesBOS: 1 out, 0 questionable · IND: 5 out, 2 questionable

+3.6

Expected marginfor Celtics

+18.8

Scenarios

Celtics win by 10+

76%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

11%

Pacers win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

INDBOS

113.2

Points scored / game

116.1

118.8

Points allowed / game

108.3

47.1 %

Field goal %

46.5 %

31.2 %

3-point %

38.6 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

41.5

72.7 %

Free throw %

76.0 %

44.0

Rebounds / game

44.3

29.4

Assists / game

27.8

6.4

Steals / game

9.0

4.8

Blocks / game

3.8

14.8

Turnovers / game

15.5

Players to watch

Pacers

Pascal SiakamF · #4324.0pts / game

Tyrese HaliburtonG · #09.5assists

Ivica ZubacC · #409.0rebounds

Celtics

Jayson TatumF · #028.0pts / game

Jayson TatumF · #08.0assists

Jayson TatumF · #06.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

IND

123-120L

121-105W

136-109L

110-102L

114-109

BOS

125-120 OTL DET

121-113W

107-103W

134-99W

125-124 OT

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

IND 7% · BOS 93%

ESPN BPI

IND 30% · BOS 70%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

IND		BOS
2-3	Record	3-1
113.2	Points scored / game	116.1
118.8	Points allowed / game	108.3
-4.7	Adjusted margin / game	+6.6
L2	Current streak	W3
2-3	Last 10 games	3-1
2-1 road	Home / road record	3-0 home
19-63 (-8.0)	Last season	56-26 (+7.7)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Pacers

Ivica Zubac COut

T.J. McConnell GOut

Ben Sheppard GOut

Tyrese Haliburton GOut

Johnny Furphy GOut

Andrew Nembhard GDay-To-Day

Aaron Nesmith GDay-To-Day

Injury report Celtics

Devin Carter GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.