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Mavericks vs Bucks prediction NBA · Monday, March 29

Mon, Mar 29 · 8:00 PM ETFiserv Forum · MyMi, Bucks App, KFAA-TV, MavsTV

Dallas Mavericks

3-2 · away

Projected score

112-116

Milwaukee Bucks

1-4 · home

37% win DALwin MIL 63%

FavoriteMIL

Projected margin4.2

Projected total228

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Milwaukee Bucks (1-4) host the Dallas Mavericks (3-2) on Monday, March 29 at 8:00 PM ET at Fiserv Forum in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Bucks a 63% chance to win and projects a 112-116 score (Mavericks – Bucks), about 228 total points. This season, the Bucks are 1-2 at home and the Mavericks are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Bucks and 3-2 for the Mavericks (current streaks: Bucks L1, Mavericks W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Mavericks played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Tarik Biberovic (Mavericks), Santi Aldama (Mavericks), Sergio de Larrea (Mavericks) and Dereck Lively II (Mavericks). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Bucks, but the Mavericks have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Bucks 116 – 112 Mavericks, a margin of about 4.2 points in favor of the Bucks and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Mavericks played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Mavericks will be without Tarik Biberovic or Santi Aldama (and 2 others).

The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Bucks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIL -6.4 / DAL -2.8 per game

-3.6

Home-court advantageBucks at home

+2.3

Back-to-backMavericks played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesMIL: 0 out, 0 questionable · DAL: 4 out, 1 questionable

+4.0

Expected marginfor Bucks

+4.2

Scenarios

Bucks win by 10+

32%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

29%

Mavericks win by 10+

13%

Stat comparison Current season

DALMIL

114.1

Points scored / game

111.4

117.4

Points allowed / game

119.0

49.0 %

Field goal %

44.9 %

34.6 %

3-point %

34.0 %

38.2

3-pointers attempted / game

41.2

76.7 %

Free throw %

71.6 %

44.2

Rebounds / game

49.8

27.6

Assists / game

24.6

9.0

Steals / game

5.8

7.4

Blocks / game

4.0

15.6

Turnovers / game

16.8

Players to watch

Mavericks

Cooper FlaggF · #3225.2pts / game

Cooper FlaggF · #326.8assists

P.J. WashingtonF · #257.8rebounds

Bucks

Tyler HerroG · #1123.4pts / game

Tyler HerroG · #114.6assists

Kel'el WareC · #98.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DAL

128-110W

121-105L

122-106W

113-109W

120-96

MIL

128-116L

132-125L

127-116W

110-102L

132-100

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DAL 37% · MIL 63%

ESPN BPI

DAL 63% · MIL 37%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

DAL		MIL
3-2	Record	1-4
114.1	Points scored / game	111.4
117.4	Points allowed / game	119.0
-2.8	Adjusted margin / game	-6.4
W2	Current streak	L1
3-2	Last 10 games	1-4
2-1 road	Home / road record	1-2 home
26-56 (-5.5)	Last season	32-50 (-6.2)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Mavericks

Tarik Biberovic FOut

Santi Aldama FOut

Sergio de Larrea FOut

Dereck Lively II COut

Naji Marshall FDay-To-Day

Injury report Bucks

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.