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Bucks vs Mavericks prediction NBA · Monday, December 14

Mon, Dec 14 · 8:00 PM ETAmerican Airlines Center · KFAA-TV, MavsTV, MyMi, Bucks App

Milwaukee Bucks

1-4 · away

Projected score

114-116

Dallas Mavericks

3-2 · home

44% win MILwin DAL 56%

FavoriteDAL

Projected margin2.0

Projected total229

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Dallas Mavericks (3-2) host the Milwaukee Bucks (1-4) on Monday, December 14 at 8:00 PM ET at American Airlines Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Mavericks a 56% chance to win and projects a 114-116 score (Bucks – Mavericks), about 229 total points. This season, the Mavericks are 1-1 at home and the Bucks are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Mavericks and 1-4 for the Bucks (current streaks: Mavericks W2, Bucks L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Tarik Biberovic (Mavericks), Santi Aldama (Mavericks), Sergio de Larrea (Mavericks) and Dereck Lively II (Mavericks). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Mavericks 116 – 114 Bucks, a margin of about 2.0 points in favor of the Mavericks and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Mavericks will be without Tarik Biberovic or Santi Aldama (and 2 others).

The Bucks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Mavericks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DAL -2.8 / MIL -6.4 per game

+3.6

Home-court advantageMavericks at home

+2.3

InjuriesDAL: 4 out, 1 questionable · MIL: 0 out, 0 questionable

-4.0

Expected marginfor Mavericks

+2.0

Scenarios

Mavericks win by 10+

26%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Bucks win by 10+

17%

Stat comparison Current season

MILDAL

111.4

Points scored / game

114.1

119.0

Points allowed / game

117.4

44.9 %

Field goal %

49.0 %

34.0 %

3-point %

34.6 %

41.2

3-pointers attempted / game

38.2

71.6 %

Free throw %

76.7 %

49.8

Rebounds / game

44.2

24.6

Assists / game

27.6

5.8

Steals / game

9.0

4.0

Blocks / game

7.4

16.8

Turnovers / game

15.6

Players to watch

Bucks

Tyler HerroG · #1123.4pts / game

Tyler HerroG · #114.6assists

Kel'el WareC · #98.4rebounds

Mavericks

Cooper FlaggF · #3225.2pts / game

Cooper FlaggF · #326.8assists

P.J. WashingtonF · #257.8rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MIL

128-116L

132-125L

127-116W

110-102L

132-100

DAL

128-110W

121-105L

122-106W

113-109W

120-96

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MIL 44% · DAL 56%

ESPN BPI

MIL 23% · DAL 77%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MIL		DAL
1-4	Record	3-2
111.4	Points scored / game	114.1
119.0	Points allowed / game	117.4
-6.4	Adjusted margin / game	-2.8
L1	Current streak	W2
1-4	Last 10 games	3-2
0-2 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
32-50 (-6.2)	Last season	26-56 (-5.5)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Bucks

No injuries reported.

Injury report Mavericks

Tarik Biberovic FOut

Santi Aldama FOut

Sergio de Larrea FOut

Dereck Lively II COut

Naji Marshall FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.