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Timberwolves vs Hawks prediction NBA · Monday, March 29

Mon, Mar 29 · 7:00 PM ETState Farm Arena · DAZN MIN

Minnesota Timberwolves

3-2 · away

Projected score

114-116

Atlanta Hawks

2-3 · home

45% win MINwin ATL 55%

FavoriteATL

Projected margin1.4

Projected total230

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Atlanta Hawks (2-3) host the Minnesota Timberwolves (3-2) on Monday, March 29 at 7:00 PM ET at State Farm Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Hawks a 55% chance to win and projects a 114-116 score (Timberwolves – Hawks), about 230 total points. This season, the Hawks are 0-2 at home and the Timberwolves are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Hawks and 3-2 for the Timberwolves (current streaks: Hawks L3, Timberwolves L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Timberwolves played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves), Donte DiVincenzo (Timberwolves), Mouhamed Gueye (Hawks) and Henri Veesaar (Hawks). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Hawks 116 – 114 Timberwolves, a margin of about 1.4 points in favor of the Hawks and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Timberwolves played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Hawks will be without Mouhamed Gueye or Henri Veesaar. The Timberwolves will be without Anthony Edwards or Donte DiVincenzo.

The Timberwolves need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Timberwolves' defense allows clearly fewer points (112.6 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Hawks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)ATL +2.7 / MIN +5.2 per game

-2.5

Home-court advantageHawks at home

+2.3

Back-to-backTimberwolves played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesATL: 2 out, 0 questionable · MIN: 2 out, 0 questionable

0.0

Expected marginfor Hawks

+1.4

Scenarios

Hawks win by 10+

25%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Timberwolves win by 10+

18%

Stat comparison Current season

MINATL

118.7

Points scored / game

119.0

112.6

Points allowed / game

115.8

47.3 %

Field goal %

46.9 %

38.4 %

3-point %

34.8 %

40.6

3-pointers attempted / game

41.4

62.7 %

Free throw %

72.8 %

51.6

Rebounds / game

41.4

27.0

Assists / game

32.2

9.2

Steals / game

10.2

4.4

Blocks / game

3.6

16.2

Turnovers / game

14.0

Players to watch

Timberwolves

Anthony EdwardsG · #533.2pts / game

LaMelo BallG · #16.6assists

Rudy GobertC · #2712.2rebounds

Hawks

Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #719.6pts / game

Jalen JohnsonF · #18.8assists

Jalen JohnsonF · #19.6rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MIN

131-106W

115-93W

117-94L

127-125 OTL

119-114

ATL

132-125W

128-81L

121-114L

120-110L

129-117

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MIN 45% · ATL 55%

ESPN BPI

MIN 54% · ATL 46%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

MIN		ATL
3-2	Record	2-3
118.7	Points scored / game	119.0
112.6	Points allowed / game	115.8
+5.2	Adjusted margin / game	+2.7
L2	Current streak	L3
3-2	Last 10 games	2-3
2-1 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
49-33 (+3.4)	Last season	46-36 (+2.4)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards GOut

Donte DiVincenzo GOut

Injury report Hawks

Mouhamed Gueye FOut

Henri Veesaar COut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.