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Hawks vs Timberwolves prediction NBA · Wednesday, March 10

Wed, Mar 10 · 9:30 PM ETTarget Center · ESPN, DAZN MIN
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks
2-3 · away
Projected score
113-118
Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota Timberwolves
3-2 · home
35% win ATLwin MIN 65%
FavoriteMIN
Projected margin4.8
Projected total232
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Minnesota Timberwolves (3-2) host the Atlanta Hawks (2-3) on Wednesday, March 10 at 9:30 PM ET at Target Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Timberwolves a 65% chance to win and projects a 113-118 score (Hawks – Timberwolves), about 232 total points. This season, the Timberwolves are 1-1 at home and the Hawks are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Timberwolves and 2-3 for the Hawks (current streaks: Timberwolves L2, Hawks L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Mouhamed Gueye (Hawks), Henri Veesaar (Hawks), Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves) and Donte DiVincenzo (Timberwolves). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Timberwolves are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Timberwolves 118 – 113 Hawks, a margin of about 4.8 points in favor of the Timberwolves and a total around 232 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Timberwolves will be without Anthony Edwards or Donte DiVincenzo. The Hawks will be without Mouhamed Gueye or Henri Veesaar.

  • The Hawks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Timberwolves' defense allows clearly fewer points (112.6 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Timberwolves
Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIN +5.2 / ATL +2.7 per game
+2.5
Home-court advantageTimberwolves at home
+2.3
InjuriesMIN: 2 out, 0 questionable · ATL: 2 out, 0 questionable
0.0
Expected marginfor Timberwolves
+4.8

Scenarios

Timberwolves win by 10+
34%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
29%
Hawks win by 10+
12%

Stat comparison Current season

ATLMIN
119.0
Points scored / game
118.7
115.8
Points allowed / game
112.6
46.9 %
Field goal %
47.3 %
34.8 %
3-point %
38.4 %
41.4
3-pointers attempted / game
40.6
72.8 %
Free throw %
62.7 %
41.4
Rebounds / game
51.6
32.2
Assists / game
27.0
10.2
Steals / game
9.2
3.6
Blocks / game
4.4
14.0
Turnovers / game
16.2

Players to watch

Hawks
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #719.6pts / game
Jalen JohnsonF · #18.8assists
Jalen JohnsonF · #19.6rebounds
Timberwolves
Anthony EdwardsG · #533.2pts / game
LaMelo BallG · #16.6assists
Rudy GobertC · #2712.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
ATL
WORL132-125WCHA128-81LHOU121-114LHOU120-110LMIA129-117
MIN
WMIA131-106WORL115-93WTOR117-94LCLE127-125 OTLGS119-114

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Mar 10ATLthis gameMINMar 29MINupcomingATL

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
ATL 35% · MIN 65%
ESPN BPI
ATL 34% · MIN 67%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

ATLMIN
2-3Record3-2
119.0Points scored / game118.7
115.8Points allowed / game112.6
+2.7Adjusted margin / game+5.2
L3Current streakL2
2-3Last 10 games3-2
2-1 roadHome / road record1-1 home
46-36 (+2.4)Last season49-33 (+3.4)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Atlanta Hawks Injury report Hawks

Mouhamed Gueye FOut
Henri Veesaar COut

Minnesota Timberwolves Injury report Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards GOut
Donte DiVincenzo GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.