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76ers vs Nuggets prediction NBA · Sunday, March 28

Sun, Mar 28 · 10:00 PM ETBall Arena · NBC

Philadelphia 76ers

4-1 · away

Projected score

112-117

Denver Nuggets

2-2 · home

36% win PHIwin DEN 64%

FavoriteDEN

Projected margin4.5

Projected total229

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Denver Nuggets (2-2) host the Philadelphia 76ers (4-1) on Sunday, March 28 at 10:00 PM ET at Ball Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Nuggets a 64% chance to win and projects a 112-117 score (76ers – Nuggets), about 229 total points. This season, the Nuggets are 1-1 at home and the 76ers are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-2 for the Nuggets and 4-1 for the 76ers (current streaks: Nuggets W1, 76ers W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jabari Walker (76ers), Tacko Fall (76ers), Dominick Barlow (76ers), Ariel Hukporti (76ers), Alpha Diallo (Nuggets) and Cameron Johnson (Nuggets)…. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Nuggets, but the 76ers have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Nuggets 117 – 112 76ers, a margin of about 4.5 points in favor of the Nuggets and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Nuggets will be without Alpha Diallo or Cameron Johnson (and 2 others). The 76ers will be without Jabari Walker or Tacko Fall (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The 76ers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Nuggets' offense (119.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Nuggets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DEN +2.6 / PHI +0.7 per game

+1.9

Home-court advantageNuggets at home

+2.3

InjuriesDEN: 4 out, 0 questionable · PHI: 4 out, 1 questionable

+0.4

Expected marginfor Nuggets

+4.5

Scenarios

Nuggets win by 10+

33%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

29%

76ers win by 10+

12%

Stat comparison Current season

PHIDEN

114.4

Points scored / game

119.2

113.5

Points allowed / game

116.2

42.8 %

Field goal %

45.8 %

32.6 %

3-point %

32.8 %

35.0

3-pointers attempted / game

34.3

77.5 %

Free throw %

79.6 %

42.2

Rebounds / game

44.5

24.6

Assists / game

26.0

9.8

Steals / game

10.0

5.6

Blocks / game

4.8

12.6

Turnovers / game

15.3

Players to watch

76ers

Tyrese MaxeyG · #028.4pts / game

LeBron JamesF · #236.8assists

Joel EmbiidC · #2110.0rebounds

Nuggets

Jamal MurrayG · #2722.5pts / game

Nikola JokicC · #159.0assists

Nikola JokicC · #1510.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

PHI

106-100W

114-106W

127-116L

106-93W

114-109

DEN

121-106L

96-84W

141-135 OTL

134-114W

104-91

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

PHI 36% · DEN 64%

ESPN BPI

PHI 48% · DEN 53%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

PHI		DEN
4-1	Record	2-2
114.4	Points scored / game	119.2
113.5	Points allowed / game	116.2
+0.7	Adjusted margin / game	+2.6
W1	Current streak	W1
4-1	Last 10 games	2-2
2-0 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
45-37 (-0.2)	Last season	54-28 (+5.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report 76ers

Jabari Walker FOut

Tacko Fall COut

Dominick Barlow FOut

Ariel Hukporti COut

Jaylen Brown GDay-To-Day

Injury report Nuggets

Alpha Diallo FOut

Cameron Johnson FOut

Spencer Jones FOut

Julian Strawther GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.