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Nuggets vs 76ers prediction NBA · Wednesday, December 2

Wed, Dec 2 · 7:00 PM ETXfinity Mobile Arena · NBA TV

Denver Nuggets

2-2 · away

Projected score

114-113

Philadelphia 76ers

4-1 · home

55% win DENwin PHI 45%

FavoriteDEN

Projected margin1.5

Projected total227

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Philadelphia 76ers (4-1) host the Denver Nuggets (2-2) on Wednesday, December 2 at 7:00 PM ET at Xfinity Mobile Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Nuggets a 55% chance to win and projects a 114-113 score (Nuggets – 76ers), about 227 total points. This season, the 76ers are 2-1 at home and the Nuggets are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the 76ers and 2-2 for the Nuggets (current streaks: 76ers W1, Nuggets W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the 76ers played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Cameron Johnson (Nuggets), Spencer Jones (Nuggets), Alpha Diallo (Nuggets), Julian Strawther (Nuggets), Jabari Walker (76ers) and Tacko Fall (76ers)…. Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects 76ers 113 – 114 Nuggets, a margin of about 1.5 points in favor of the Nuggets and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The 76ers played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The 76ers will be without Jabari Walker or Tacko Fall (and 2 others). The Nuggets will be without Cameron Johnson or Spencer Jones (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The 76ers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Nuggets' offense (119.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge 76ers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)PHI +0.7 / DEN +2.6 per game

-1.9

Home-court advantage76ers at home

+2.3

Back-to-back76ers played yesterday

-1.6

InjuriesPHI: 4 out, 1 questionable · DEN: 4 out, 0 questionable

-0.4

Expected marginfor 76ers

-1.5

Scenarios

76ers win by 10+

18%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Nuggets win by 10+

25%

Stat comparison Current season

DENPHI

119.2

Points scored / game

114.4

116.2

Points allowed / game

113.5

45.8 %

Field goal %

42.8 %

32.8 %

3-point %

32.6 %

34.3

3-pointers attempted / game

35.0

79.6 %

Free throw %

77.5 %

44.5

Rebounds / game

42.2

26.0

Assists / game

24.6

10.0

Steals / game

9.8

4.8

Blocks / game

5.6

15.3

Turnovers / game

12.6

Players to watch

Nuggets

Jamal MurrayG · #2722.5pts / game

Nikola JokicC · #159.0assists

Nikola JokicC · #1510.5rebounds

76ers

Tyrese MaxeyG · #028.4pts / game

LeBron JamesF · #236.8assists

Joel EmbiidC · #2110.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DEN

121-106L

96-84W

141-135 OTL

134-114W

104-91

PHI

106-100W

114-106W

127-116L

106-93W

114-109

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DEN 55% · PHI 45%

ESPN BPI

DEN 42% · PHI 58%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

DEN		PHI
2-2	Record	4-1
119.2	Points scored / game	114.4
116.2	Points allowed / game	113.5
+2.6	Adjusted margin / game	+0.7
W1	Current streak	W1
2-2	Last 10 games	4-1
1-1 road	Home / road record	2-1 home
54-28 (+5.2)	Last season	45-37 (-0.2)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Nuggets

Cameron Johnson FOut

Spencer Jones FOut

Alpha Diallo FOut

Julian Strawther GOut

Injury report 76ers

Jabari Walker FOut

Tacko Fall COut

Dominick Barlow FOut

Ariel Hukporti COut

Jaylen Brown GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.