Raptors vs Suns prediction NBA · Sunday, March 28
At a glance
The Phoenix Suns (1-2) host the Toronto Raptors (3-1) on Sunday, March 28 at 9:00 PM ET at Mortgage Matchup Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Raptors a 56% chance to win and projects a 112-110 score (Raptors – Suns), about 222 total points. This season, the Suns are 1-0 at home and the Raptors are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-2 for the Suns and 3-1 for the Raptors (current streaks: Suns L1, Raptors W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Raptors played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Kawhi Leonard (Raptors), Nate Bittle (Raptors) and Mark Williams (Suns). Prediction confidence: low.
The analysis Model
A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Suns 110 – 112 Raptors, a margin of about 2.0 points in favor of the Raptors and a total around 222 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Raptors played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Suns will be without Mark Williams. The Raptors will be without Kawhi Leonard or Nate Bittle. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (-1.4 vs +5.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Suns need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Raptors' offense (115.4 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Raptors' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.5 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
TORPHX
Players to watch
Raptors
RJ BarrettF · #922.0pts / game
Immanuel QuickleyG · #55.5assists
Scottie BarnesF · #47.2reboundsSuns
Devin BookerG · #1522.7pts / gameDevin BookerG · #155.3assists
Khaman MaluachC · #107.3reboundsRecent form
TOR
129-125W
135-92W
112-102L
117-94W
129-99PHX
123-103L
119-116L
124-83W
131-122L
125-114
PHX
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| TOR | PHX | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 1-2 |
| 115.4 | Points scored / game | 111.9 |
| 109.5 | Points allowed / game | 113.6 |
| +5.0 | Adjusted margin / game | -1.4 |
| W1 | Current streak | L1 |
| 3-1 | Last 10 games | 1-2 |
| 1-1 road | Home / road record | 1-0 home |
| 46-36 (+2.8) | Last season | 45-37 (+1.5) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Raptors
Injury report Suns
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.