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Suns vs Raptors prediction NBA · Wednesday, January 13

Wed, Jan 13 · 7:30 PM ETScotiabank Arena · Arizona's Family 3TV, Suns Live

Phoenix Suns

1-2 · away

Projected score

108-115

Toronto Raptors

3-1 · home

30% win PHXwin TOR 70%

FavoriteTOR

Projected margin6.6

Projected total222

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Toronto Raptors (3-1) host the Phoenix Suns (1-2) on Wednesday, January 13 at 7:30 PM ET at Scotiabank Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Raptors a 70% chance to win and projects a 108-115 score (Suns – Raptors), about 222 total points. This season, the Raptors are 2-0 at home and the Suns are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Raptors and 1-2 for the Suns (current streaks: Raptors W1, Suns L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 27% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Raptors played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Mark Williams (Suns), Kawhi Leonard (Raptors) and Nate Bittle (Raptors). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Raptors are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Raptors 115 – 108 Suns, a margin of about 6.6 points in favor of the Raptors and a total around 222 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Raptors played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Raptors will be without Kawhi Leonard or Nate Bittle. The Suns will be without Mark Williams. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+5.0 vs -1.4 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Suns need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Raptors' offense (115.4 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Raptors' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.5 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Raptors

Team strength (adjusted point differential)TOR +5.0 / PHX -1.4 per game

+6.4

Home-court advantageRaptors at home

+2.3

Back-to-backRaptors played yesterday

-1.6

InjuriesTOR: 2 out, 0 questionable · PHX: 1 out, 1 questionable

-0.6

Expected marginfor Raptors

+6.6

Scenarios

Raptors win by 10+

39%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

27%

Suns win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

PHXTOR

111.9

Points scored / game

115.4

113.6

Points allowed / game

109.5

45.6 %

Field goal %

44.2 %

31.9 %

3-point %

30.4 %

39.7

3-pointers attempted / game

34.5

73.9 %

Free throw %

79.0 %

39.7

Rebounds / game

45.8

25.3

Assists / game

27.3

8.7

Steals / game

14.3

5.3

Blocks / game

5.5

14.0

Turnovers / game

14.0

Players to watch

Suns

Devin BookerG · #1522.7pts / game

Devin BookerG · #155.3assists

Khaman MaluachC · #107.3rebounds

Raptors

RJ BarrettF · #922.0pts / game

Immanuel QuickleyG · #55.5assists

Scottie BarnesF · #47.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

PHX

123-103L

119-116L

124-83W

131-122L

125-114

TOR

129-125W

135-92W

112-102L

117-94W

129-99

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

PHX 30% · TOR 70%

ESPN BPI

PHX 30% · TOR 70%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

PHX		TOR
1-2	Record	3-1
111.9	Points scored / game	115.4
113.6	Points allowed / game	109.5
-1.4	Adjusted margin / game	+5.0
L1	Current streak	W1
1-2	Last 10 games	3-1
0-2 road	Home / road record	2-0 home
45-37 (+1.5)	Last season	46-36 (+2.8)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Suns

Mark Williams COut

Oso Ighodaro FDay-To-Day

Injury report Raptors

Kawhi Leonard FOut

Nate Bittle COut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.