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Celtics vs Pelicans prediction NBA · Sunday, March 28

Sun, Mar 28 · 7:00 PM ETSmoothie King Center · GCSEN, Pelicans.com
Boston Celtics
Boston Celtics
3-1 · away
Projected score
118-109
New Orleans Pelicans
New Orleans Pelicans
0-4 · home
75% win BOSwin NO 25%
FavoriteBOS
Projected margin8.6
Projected total227
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The New Orleans Pelicans (0-4) host the Boston Celtics (3-1) on Sunday, March 28 at 7:00 PM ET at Smoothie King Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Celtics a 75% chance to win and projects a 118-109 score (Celtics – Pelicans), about 227 total points. This season, the Pelicans are 0-2 at home and the Celtics are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Pelicans and 3-1 for the Celtics (current streaks: Pelicans L4, Celtics W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 25% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Celtics played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Devin Carter (Celtics), Dejounte Murray (Pelicans), Jordan Poole (Pelicans) and Yves Missi (Pelicans). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Celtics start with a clear edge. The model projects Pelicans 109 – 118 Celtics, a margin of about 8.6 points in favor of the Celtics and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Celtics played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Pelicans will be without Dejounte Murray or Jordan Poole (and 1 other). The Celtics will be without Devin Carter. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

  • The overall strength gap (-4.1 vs +6.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Pelicans need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Celtics' defense allows clearly fewer points (108.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Pelicans
Team strength (adjusted point differential)NO -4.1 / BOS +6.6 per game
-10.7
Home-court advantagePelicans at home
+2.3
Back-to-backCeltics played yesterday
+1.6
InjuriesNO: 3 out, 0 questionable · BOS: 1 out, 0 questionable
-1.8
Expected marginfor Pelicans
-8.6

Scenarios

Pelicans win by 10+
7%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
25%
Celtics win by 10+
46%

Stat comparison Current season

BOSNO
116.1
Points scored / game
115.7
108.3
Points allowed / game
120.5
46.5 %
Field goal %
46.5 %
38.6 %
3-point %
29.0 %
41.5
3-pointers attempted / game
31.0
76.0 %
Free throw %
83.6 %
44.3
Rebounds / game
44.3
27.8
Assists / game
23.5
9.0
Steals / game
12.3
3.8
Blocks / game
4.8
15.5
Turnovers / game
16.5

Players to watch

Celtics
Jayson TatumF · #028.0pts / game
Jayson TatumF · #08.0assists
Jayson TatumF · #06.2rebounds
Pelicans
Zion WilliamsonF · #121.8pts / game
Dejounte MurrayG · #56.0assists
Derik QueenC · #229.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
BOS
WPHI125-120 OTLDET121-113WNY107-103WCHI134-99WBKN125-124 OT
NO
WWSH107-106LIND123-120LUTAH120-119LDEN141-135 OTLDEN104-91

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Mar 21NOupcomingBOSMar 28BOSthis gameNO

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
BOS 75% · NO 25%
ESPN BPI
BOS 72% · NO 28%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

BOSNO
3-1Record0-4
116.1Points scored / game115.7
108.3Points allowed / game120.5
+6.6Adjusted margin / game-4.1
W3Current streakL4
3-1Last 10 games0-4
0-1 roadHome / road record0-2 home
56-26 (+7.7)Last season26-56 (-4.5)
YesPlayed yesterdayNo

Boston Celtics Injury report Celtics

Devin Carter GOut

New Orleans Pelicans Injury report Pelicans

Dejounte Murray GOut
Jordan Poole GOut
Yves Missi COut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.