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Pelicans vs Celtics prediction NBA · Sunday, March 21

Sun, Mar 21 · 3:00 PM ETTD Garden · GCSEN, Pelicans.com
New Orleans Pelicans
New Orleans Pelicans
0-4 · away
Projected score
107-122
Boston Celtics
Boston Celtics
3-1 · home
12% win NOwin BOS 88%
FavoriteBOS
Projected margin14.8
Projected total229
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Boston Celtics (3-1) host the New Orleans Pelicans (0-4) on Sunday, March 21 at 3:00 PM ET at TD Garden in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Celtics a 88% chance to win and projects a 107-122 score (Pelicans – Celtics), about 229 total points. This season, the Celtics are 3-0 at home and the Pelicans are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Celtics and 0-4 for the Pelicans (current streaks: Celtics W3, Pelicans L4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 16% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Dejounte Murray (Pelicans), Jordan Poole (Pelicans), Yves Missi (Pelicans) and Devin Carter (Celtics). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Celtics dominate this matchup. The model projects Celtics 122 – 107 Pelicans, a margin of about 14.8 points in favor of the Celtics and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Celtics will be without Devin Carter. The Pelicans will be without Dejounte Murray or Jordan Poole (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

  • The overall strength gap (+6.6 vs -4.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Pelicans need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Celtics' defense allows clearly fewer points (108.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Celtics
Team strength (adjusted point differential)BOS +6.6 / NO -4.1 per game
+10.7
Home-court advantageCeltics at home
+2.3
InjuriesBOS: 1 out, 0 questionable · NO: 3 out, 0 questionable
+1.8
Expected marginfor Celtics
+14.8

Scenarios

Celtics win by 10+
65%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
16%
Pelicans win by 10+
2%

Stat comparison Current season

NOBOS
115.7
Points scored / game
116.1
120.5
Points allowed / game
108.3
46.5 %
Field goal %
46.5 %
29.0 %
3-point %
38.6 %
31.0
3-pointers attempted / game
41.5
83.6 %
Free throw %
76.0 %
44.3
Rebounds / game
44.3
23.5
Assists / game
27.8
12.3
Steals / game
9.0
4.8
Blocks / game
3.8
16.5
Turnovers / game
15.5

Players to watch

Pelicans
Zion WilliamsonF · #121.8pts / game
Dejounte MurrayG · #56.0assists
Derik QueenC · #229.2rebounds
Celtics
Jayson TatumF · #028.0pts / game
Jayson TatumF · #08.0assists
Jayson TatumF · #06.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
NO
WWSH107-106LIND123-120LUTAH120-119LDEN141-135 OTLDEN104-91
BOS
WPHI125-120 OTLDET121-113WNY107-103WCHI134-99WBKN125-124 OT

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Mar 21NOthis gameBOSMar 28BOSupcomingNO

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
NO 12% · BOS 88%
ESPN BPI
NO 18% · BOS 82%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

NOBOS
0-4Record3-1
115.7Points scored / game116.1
120.5Points allowed / game108.3
-4.1Adjusted margin / game+6.6
L4Current streakW3
0-4Last 10 games3-1
0-2 roadHome / road record3-0 home
26-56 (-4.5)Last season56-26 (+7.7)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

New Orleans Pelicans Injury report Pelicans

Dejounte Murray GOut
Jordan Poole GOut
Yves Missi COut

Boston Celtics Injury report Celtics

Devin Carter GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.