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Mavericks vs Wizards prediction NBA · Sunday, March 28

Sun, Mar 28 · 6:00 PM ETCapital One Arena · MNMT, KFAA-TV, MavsTV

Dallas Mavericks

3-2 · away

Projected score

116-113

Washington Wizards

2-3 · home

60% win DALwin WSH 40%

FavoriteDAL

Projected margin3.3

Projected total229

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Washington Wizards (2-3) host the Dallas Mavericks (3-2) on Sunday, March 28 at 6:00 PM ET at Capital One Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Mavericks a 60% chance to win and projects a 116-113 score (Mavericks – Wizards), about 229 total points. This season, the Wizards are 1-1 at home and the Mavericks are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Wizards and 3-2 for the Mavericks (current streaks: Wizards L2, Mavericks W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Wizards played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Tarik Biberovic (Mavericks), Santi Aldama (Mavericks), Sergio de Larrea (Mavericks), Dereck Lively II (Mavericks), Justin Champagnie (Wizards) and Tristan Vukcevic (Wizards)…. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Mavericks, but the Wizards have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Wizards 113 – 116 Mavericks, a margin of about 3.3 points in favor of the Mavericks and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Wizards played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Wizards will be without Justin Champagnie or Tristan Vukcevic (and 1 other). The Mavericks will be without Tarik Biberovic or Santi Aldama (and 2 others).

The overall strength gap (-7.7 vs -2.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Wizards need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Mavericks' defense allows clearly fewer points (117.4 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Wizards

Team strength (adjusted point differential)WSH -7.7 / DAL -2.8 per game

-4.9

Home-court advantageWizards at home

+2.3

Back-to-backWizards played yesterday

-1.6

InjuriesWSH: 3 out, 1 questionable · DAL: 4 out, 1 questionable

+0.9

Expected marginfor Wizards

-3.3

Scenarios

Wizards win by 10+

14%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

30%

Mavericks win by 10+

30%

Stat comparison Current season

DALWSH

114.1

Points scored / game

113.1

117.4

Points allowed / game

122.2

49.0 %

Field goal %

48.0 %

34.6 %

3-point %

28.5 %

38.2

3-pointers attempted / game

31.6

76.7 %

Free throw %

83.1 %

44.2

Rebounds / game

40.0

27.6

Assists / game

25.8

9.0

Steals / game

7.4

Blocks / game

5.6

15.6

Turnovers / game

13.6

Players to watch

Mavericks

Cooper FlaggF · #3225.2pts / game

Cooper FlaggF · #326.8assists

P.J. WashingtonF · #257.8rebounds

Wizards

Anthony DavisF · #2321.8pts / game

Trae YoungG · #310.4assists

Anthony DavisF · #238.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DAL

128-110W

121-105L

122-106W

113-109W

120-96

WSH

128-116L

112-102W

124-120L

110-103L

121-111

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DAL 60% · WSH 40%

ESPN BPI

DAL 56% · WSH 44%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

DAL		WSH
3-2	Record	2-3
114.1	Points scored / game	113.1
117.4	Points allowed / game	122.2
-2.8	Adjusted margin / game	-7.7
W2	Current streak	L2
3-2	Last 10 games	2-3
2-1 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
26-56 (-5.5)	Last season	17-65 (-12.0)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Mavericks

Tarik Biberovic FOut

Santi Aldama FOut

Sergio de Larrea FOut

Dereck Lively II COut

Naji Marshall FDay-To-Day

Injury report Wizards

Justin Champagnie FOut

Tristan Vukcevic FOut

Jamir Watkins GOut

Tre Johnson GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.