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Wizards vs Mavericks prediction NBA · Thursday, March 11

Thu, Mar 11 · 8:00 PM ETAmerican Airlines Center · KFAA-TV, MavsTV

Washington Wizards

2-3 · away

Projected score

112-118

Dallas Mavericks

3-2 · home

31% win WSHwin DAL 69%

FavoriteDAL

Projected margin6.3

Projected total231

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Dallas Mavericks (3-2) host the Washington Wizards (2-3) on Thursday, March 11 at 8:00 PM ET at American Airlines Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Mavericks a 69% chance to win and projects a 112-118 score (Wizards – Mavericks), about 231 total points. This season, the Mavericks are 1-1 at home and the Wizards are 1-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Mavericks and 2-3 for the Wizards (current streaks: Mavericks W2, Wizards L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 28% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Justin Champagnie (Wizards), Tristan Vukcevic (Wizards), Jamir Watkins (Wizards), Tarik Biberovic (Mavericks), Santi Aldama (Mavericks) and Sergio de Larrea (Mavericks)…. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Mavericks are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Mavericks 118 – 112 Wizards, a margin of about 6.3 points in favor of the Mavericks and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Mavericks will be without Tarik Biberovic or Santi Aldama (and 2 others). The Wizards will be without Justin Champagnie or Tristan Vukcevic (and 1 other).

The overall strength gap (-2.8 vs -7.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Wizards need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Mavericks' defense allows clearly fewer points (117.4 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Mavericks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DAL -2.8 / WSH -7.7 per game

+4.9

Home-court advantageMavericks at home

+2.3

InjuriesDAL: 4 out, 1 questionable · WSH: 3 out, 1 questionable

-0.9

Expected marginfor Mavericks

+6.3

Scenarios

Mavericks win by 10+

38%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

28%

Wizards win by 10+

10%

Stat comparison Current season

WSHDAL

113.1

Points scored / game

114.1

122.2

Points allowed / game

117.4

48.0 %

Field goal %

49.0 %

28.5 %

3-point %

34.6 %

31.6

3-pointers attempted / game

38.2

83.1 %

Free throw %

76.7 %

40.0

Rebounds / game

44.2

25.8

Assists / game

27.6

7.4

Steals / game

9.0

5.6

Blocks / game

7.4

13.6

Turnovers / game

15.6

Players to watch

Wizards

Anthony DavisF · #2321.8pts / game

Trae YoungG · #310.4assists

Anthony DavisF · #238.4rebounds

Mavericks

Cooper FlaggF · #3225.2pts / game

Cooper FlaggF · #326.8assists

P.J. WashingtonF · #257.8rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

WSH

128-116L

112-102W

124-120L

110-103L

121-111

DAL

128-110W

121-105L

122-106W

113-109W

120-96

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

WSH 31% · DAL 69%

ESPN BPI

WSH 35% · DAL 65%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

WSH		DAL
2-3	Record	3-2
113.1	Points scored / game	114.1
122.2	Points allowed / game	117.4
-7.7	Adjusted margin / game	-2.8
L2	Current streak	W2
2-3	Last 10 games	3-2
1-2 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
17-65 (-12.0)	Last season	26-56 (-5.5)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Wizards

Justin Champagnie FOut

Tristan Vukcevic FOut

Jamir Watkins GOut

Tre Johnson GDay-To-Day

Injury report Mavericks

Tarik Biberovic FOut

Santi Aldama FOut

Sergio de Larrea FOut

Dereck Lively II COut

Naji Marshall FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.