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Jazz vs Hornets prediction NBA · Sunday, March 28

Sun, Mar 28 · 6:00 PM ETSpectrum Center · KJZZ-TV, Jazz+, DAZN CHA

Utah Jazz

1-4 · away

Projected score

108-119

Charlotte Hornets

3-2 · home

19% win UTAHwin CHA 81%

FavoriteCHA

Projected margin11.1

Projected total227

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Charlotte Hornets (3-2) host the Utah Jazz (1-4) on Sunday, March 28 at 6:00 PM ET at Spectrum Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Hornets a 81% chance to win and projects a 108-119 score (Jazz – Hornets), about 227 total points. This season, the Hornets are 2-1 at home and the Jazz are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Hornets and 1-4 for the Jazz (current streaks: Hornets L1, Jazz L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 21% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Jazz played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Jaren Jackson Jr. (Jazz), Trey Alexander (Jazz), Jusuf Nurkic (Jazz), Kon Knueppel (Hornets), Coby White (Hornets) and Grant Williams (Hornets)…. Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

The Hornets start with a clear edge. The model projects Hornets 119 – 108 Jazz, a margin of about 11.1 points in favor of the Hornets and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Jazz played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Hornets will be without Kon Knueppel or Coby White (and 2 others). The Jazz will be without Jaren Jackson Jr. or Trey Alexander (and 1 other).

The overall strength gap (+1.1 vs -7.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Jazz need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Jazz's offense (116.1 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Hornets' defense allows clearly fewer points (110.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Hornets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)CHA +1.1 / UTAH -7.0 per game

+8.1

Home-court advantageHornets at home

+2.3

Back-to-backJazz played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesCHA: 4 out, 1 questionable · UTAH: 3 out, 1 questionable

-0.9

Expected marginfor Hornets

+11.1

Scenarios

Hornets win by 10+

54%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

21%

Jazz win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

UTAHCHA

116.1

Points scored / game

111.6

124.3

Points allowed / game

110.3

45.4 %

Field goal %

41.7 %

33.9 %

3-point %

30.6 %

34.8

3-pointers attempted / game

43.2

76.6 %

Free throw %

85.2 %

46.8

Rebounds / game

47.4

26.8

Assists / game

20.6

5.0

Steals / game

6.8

6.4

Blocks / game

5.2

17.0

Turnovers / game

19.0

Players to watch

Jazz

Keyonte GeorgeG · #324.4pts / game

Keyonte GeorgeG · #36.8assists

Ace BaileyG · #198.0rebounds

Hornets

Brandon MillerF · #2425.6pts / game

Dennis SchroderG · #174.8assists

Moussa DiabateF · #149.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

UTAH

123-103W

120-119L

132-123L

110-105L

117-111 OT

CHA

110-103L

128-81W

115-110W

110-103L

97-89

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

UTAH 19% · CHA 81%

ESPN BPI

UTAH 39% · CHA 61%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

UTAH		CHA
1-4	Record	3-2
116.1	Points scored / game	111.6
124.3	Points allowed / game	110.3
-7.0	Adjusted margin / game	+1.1
L3	Current streak	L1
1-4	Last 10 games	3-2
0-1 road	Home / road record	2-1 home
22-60 (-8.4)	Last season	44-38 (+4.8)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Jazz

Jaren Jackson Jr. FOut

Trey Alexander GOut

Jusuf Nurkic COut

Lauri Markkanen FDay-To-Day

Injury report Hornets

Kon Knueppel GOut

Coby White GOut

Grant Williams FOut

Kylan Boswell GOut

Dennis Schroder GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.