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Hornets vs Jazz prediction NBA · Thursday, January 14

Thu, Jan 14 · 9:00 PM ETDelta Center · KJZZ-TV, Jazz+, DAZN CHA

Charlotte Hornets

3-2 · away

Projected score

115-112

Utah Jazz

1-4 · home

60% win CHAwin UTAH 40%

FavoriteCHA

Projected margin3.3

Projected total227

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Utah Jazz (1-4) host the Charlotte Hornets (3-2) on Thursday, January 14 at 9:00 PM ET at Delta Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Hornets a 60% chance to win and projects a 115-112 score (Hornets – Jazz), about 227 total points. This season, the Jazz are 1-3 at home and the Hornets are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Jazz and 3-2 for the Hornets (current streaks: Jazz L3, Hornets L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Hornets played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Kon Knueppel (Hornets), Coby White (Hornets), Grant Williams (Hornets), Kylan Boswell (Hornets), Jaren Jackson Jr. (Jazz) and Trey Alexander (Jazz)…. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Hornets are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Jazz 112 – 115 Hornets, a margin of about 3.3 points in favor of the Hornets and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Hornets played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Jazz will be without Jaren Jackson Jr. or Trey Alexander (and 1 other). The Hornets will be without Kon Knueppel or Coby White (and 2 others).

The overall strength gap (-7.0 vs +1.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Jazz need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Jazz's offense (116.1 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Hornets' defense allows clearly fewer points (110.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Jazz

Team strength (adjusted point differential)UTAH -7.0 / CHA +1.1 per game

-8.1

Home-court advantageJazz at home

+2.3

Back-to-backHornets played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesUTAH: 3 out, 1 questionable · CHA: 4 out, 1 questionable

+0.9

Expected marginfor Jazz

-3.3

Scenarios

Jazz win by 10+

14%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

30%

Hornets win by 10+

30%

Stat comparison Current season

CHAUTAH

111.6

Points scored / game

116.1

110.3

Points allowed / game

124.3

41.7 %

Field goal %

45.4 %

30.6 %

3-point %

33.9 %

43.2

3-pointers attempted / game

34.8

85.2 %

Free throw %

76.6 %

47.4

Rebounds / game

46.8

20.6

Assists / game

26.8

6.8

Steals / game

5.0

5.2

Blocks / game

6.4

19.0

Turnovers / game

17.0

Players to watch

Hornets

Brandon MillerF · #2425.6pts / game

Dennis SchroderG · #174.8assists

Moussa DiabateF · #149.4rebounds

Jazz

Keyonte GeorgeG · #324.4pts / game

Keyonte GeorgeG · #36.8assists

Ace BaileyG · #198.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

CHA

110-103L

128-81W

115-110W

110-103L

97-89

UTAH

123-103W

120-119L

132-123L

110-105L

117-111 OT

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

CHA 60% · UTAH 40%

ESPN BPI

CHA 48% · UTAH 52%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

CHA		UTAH
3-2	Record	1-4
111.6	Points scored / game	116.1
110.3	Points allowed / game	124.3
+1.1	Adjusted margin / game	-7.0
L1	Current streak	L3
3-2	Last 10 games	1-4
1-1 road	Home / road record	1-3 home
44-38 (+4.8)	Last season	22-60 (-8.4)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Hornets

Kon Knueppel GOut

Coby White GOut

Grant Williams FOut

Kylan Boswell GOut

Dennis Schroder GDay-To-Day

Injury report Jazz

Jaren Jackson Jr. FOut

Trey Alexander GOut

Jusuf Nurkic COut

Lauri Markkanen FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.