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Lakers vs Rockets prediction NBA · Sunday, March 28

Sun, Mar 28 · 3:00 PM ETToyota Center (Houston) · ESPN, Spectrum Sports Net, Spectrum Sports Net +
Los Angeles Lakers
Los Angeles Lakers
4-1 · away
Projected score
112-116
Houston Rockets
Houston Rockets
5-0 · home
36% win LALwin HOU 64%
FavoriteHOU
Projected margin4.6
Projected total228
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Houston Rockets (5-0) host the Los Angeles Lakers (4-1) on Sunday, March 28 at 3:00 PM ET at Toyota Center (Houston) in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Rockets a 64% chance to win and projects a 112-116 score (Lakers – Rockets), about 228 total points. This season, the Rockets are 2-0 at home and the Lakers are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 5-0 for the Rockets and 4-1 for the Lakers (current streaks: Rockets W5, Lakers W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Cameron Carr (Lakers), Adou Thiero (Lakers), Reed Sheppard (Rockets), Marcus Smart (Rockets) and Steven Adams (Rockets). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Rockets, but the Lakers have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Rockets 116 – 112 Lakers, a margin of about 4.6 points in favor of the Rockets and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Rockets will be without Reed Sheppard or Marcus Smart (and 1 other). The Lakers will be without Cameron Carr or Adou Thiero.

  • The Lakers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Rockets' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.7 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Rockets
Team strength (adjusted point differential)HOU +6.7 / LAL +3.5 per game
+3.2
Home-court advantageRockets at home
+2.3
InjuriesHOU: 3 out, 1 questionable · LAL: 2 out, 1 questionable
-0.9
Expected marginfor Rockets
+4.6

Scenarios

Rockets win by 10+
33%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
29%
Lakers win by 10+
12%

Stat comparison Current season

LALHOU
118.4
Points scored / game
117.5
114.3
Points allowed / game
109.7
52.9 %
Field goal %
51.7 %
39.2 %
3-point %
40.4 %
36.2
3-pointers attempted / game
32.2
79.1 %
Free throw %
84.7 %
38.0
Rebounds / game
44.8
24.0
Assists / game
28.2
10.8
Steals / game
10.2
5.8
Blocks / game
6.0
16.6
Turnovers / game
15.8

Players to watch

Lakers
Luka DoncicG · #7736.0pts / game
Luka DoncicG · #778.2assists
Walker KesslerC · #148.2rebounds
Rockets
Alperen SengunC · #2824.5pts / game
Alperen SengunC · #287.0assists
Alperen SengunC · #289.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
LAL
WGS127-105WLAC125-117WUTAH132-123LPOR136-129WLAC103-87
HOU
WDAL128-110WSA114-110WATL121-114WATL120-110WMIL132-100

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Nov 30LALupcomingHOUDec 29HOUupcomingLALFeb 18HOUupcomingLALMar 28LALthis gameHOU

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
LAL 36% · HOU 64%
ESPN BPI
LAL 38% · HOU 62%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

LALHOU
4-1Record5-0
118.4Points scored / game117.5
114.3Points allowed / game109.7
+3.5Adjusted margin / game+6.7
W1Current streakW5
4-1Last 10 games5-0
2-0 roadHome / road record2-0 home
53-29 (+1.8)Last season52-30 (+5.2)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Los Angeles Lakers Injury report Lakers

Cameron Carr GOut
Adou Thiero FOut
Ziaire Williams FDay-To-Day

Houston Rockets Injury report Rockets

Reed Sheppard GOut
Marcus Smart GOut
Steven Adams COut
Alperen Sengun CDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.