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Rockets vs Lakers prediction NBA · Tuesday, December 29

Tue, Dec 29 · 10:30 PM ETcrypto.com Arena · NBC, Spectrum Sports Net, Spectrum Sports Net +
Houston Rockets
Houston Rockets
5-0 · away
Projected score
115-114
Los Angeles Lakers
Los Angeles Lakers
4-1 · home
51% win HOUwin LAL 49%
FavoriteHOU
Projected margin0.4
Projected total228
ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Los Angeles Lakers (4-1) host the Houston Rockets (5-0) on Tuesday, December 29 at 10:30 PM ET at crypto.com Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Rockets a 51% chance to win and projects a 115-114 score (Rockets – Lakers), about 228 total points. This season, the Lakers are 2-1 at home and the Rockets are 3-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Lakers and 5-0 for the Rockets (current streaks: Lakers W1, Rockets W5). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Reed Sheppard (Rockets), Marcus Smart (Rockets), Steven Adams (Rockets), Cameron Carr (Lakers) and Adou Thiero (Lakers). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Lakers 114 – 115 Rockets, a margin of about 0.4 points in favor of the Rockets and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Lakers will be without Cameron Carr or Adou Thiero. The Rockets will be without Reed Sheppard or Marcus Smart (and 1 other).

  • The Lakers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Rockets' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.7 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Lakers
Team strength (adjusted point differential)LAL +3.5 / HOU +6.7 per game
-3.2
Home-court advantageLakers at home
+2.3
InjuriesLAL: 2 out, 2 questionable · HOU: 3 out, 1 questionable
+0.6
Expected marginfor Lakers
-0.4

Scenarios

Lakers win by 10+
20%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
31%
Rockets win by 10+
22%

Stat comparison Current season

HOULAL
117.5
Points scored / game
118.4
109.7
Points allowed / game
114.3
51.7 %
Field goal %
52.9 %
40.4 %
3-point %
39.2 %
32.2
3-pointers attempted / game
36.2
84.7 %
Free throw %
79.1 %
44.8
Rebounds / game
38.0
28.2
Assists / game
24.0
10.2
Steals / game
10.8
6.0
Blocks / game
5.8
15.8
Turnovers / game
16.6

Players to watch

Rockets
Alperen SengunC · #2824.5pts / game
Alperen SengunC · #287.0assists
Alperen SengunC · #289.0rebounds
Lakers
Luka DoncicG · #7736.0pts / game
Luka DoncicG · #778.2assists
Walker KesslerC · #148.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
HOU
WDAL128-110WSA114-110WATL121-114WATL120-110WMIL132-100
LAL
WGS127-105WLAC125-117WUTAH132-123LPOR136-129WLAC103-87

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Nov 30LALupcomingHOUDec 29HOUthis gameLALFeb 18HOUupcomingLALMar 28LALupcomingHOU

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
HOU 51% · LAL 49%
ESPN BPI
HOU 52% · LAL 48%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

HOULAL
5-0Record4-1
117.5Points scored / game118.4
109.7Points allowed / game114.3
+6.7Adjusted margin / game+3.5
W5Current streakW1
5-0Last 10 games4-1
3-0 roadHome / road record2-1 home
52-30 (+5.2)Last season53-29 (+1.8)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Houston Rockets Injury report Rockets

Reed Sheppard GOut
Marcus Smart GOut
Steven Adams COut
Alperen Sengun CDay-To-Day

Los Angeles Lakers Injury report Lakers

Cameron Carr GOut
Adou Thiero FOut
Ziaire Williams FDay-To-Day
Luka Doncic GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.