Match analysis Today's games NBA standings EuroLeague Track record

Grizzlies vs Nets prediction NBA · Sunday, March 28

Sun, Mar 28 · 3:00 PM ETBarclays Center · DAZN (YES), DAZN MEM

Memphis Grizzlies

4-0 · away

Projected score

117-111

Brooklyn Nets

0-4 · home

69% win MEMwin BKN 31%

FavoriteMEM

Projected margin6.2

Projected total228

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Brooklyn Nets (0-4) host the Memphis Grizzlies (4-0) on Sunday, March 28 at 3:00 PM ET at Barclays Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Grizzlies a 69% chance to win and projects a 117-111 score (Grizzlies – Nets), about 228 total points. This season, the Nets are 0-2 at home and the Grizzlies are 3-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Nets and 4-0 for the Grizzlies (current streaks: Nets L4, Grizzlies W4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 28% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Egor Demin (Nets) and Tyler Bilodeau (Nets). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Grizzlies are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Nets 111 – 117 Grizzlies, a margin of about 6.2 points in favor of the Grizzlies and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Nets will be without Egor Demin or Tyler Bilodeau. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-8.4 vs -1.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Nets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Grizzlies' offense (115.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Nets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)BKN -8.4 / MEM -1.8 per game

-6.7

Home-court advantageNets at home

+2.3

InjuriesBKN: 2 out, 0 questionable · MEM: 0 out, 0 questionable

-1.8

Expected marginfor Nets

-6.2

Scenarios

Nets win by 10+

10%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

28%

Grizzlies win by 10+

38%

Stat comparison Current season

MEMBKN

115.2

Points scored / game

108.0

117.3

Points allowed / game

117.9

45.3 %

Field goal %

42.9 %

39.1 %

3-point %

36.7 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

42.3

82.8 %

Free throw %

76.6 %

50.0

Rebounds / game

43.5

25.0

Assists / game

24.0

6.3

Steals / game

10.0

6.3

Blocks / game

4.0

15.5

Turnovers / game

17.5

Players to watch

Grizzlies

Ty JeromeG · #229.8pts / game

Ty JeromeG · #26.5assists

Cameron BoozerF · #2710.5rebounds

Nets

Michael Porter Jr.F · #1722.8pts / game

Julius RandleF · #305.8assists

Julius RandleF · #307.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MEM

116-98W

123-103W

111-108W

123-112W

110-105

BKN

L144-128L110-103L125-121L136-109L125-124 OT

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MEM 69% · BKN 31%

ESPN BPI

MEM 56% · BKN 44%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MEM		BKN
4-0	Record	0-4
115.2	Points scored / game	108.0
117.3	Points allowed / game	117.9
-1.8	Adjusted margin / game	-8.4
W4	Current streak	L4
4-0	Last 10 games	0-4
3-0 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
25-57 (-6.0)	Last season	20-62 (-10.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Grizzlies

No injuries reported.

Injury report Nets

Egor Demin GOut

Tyler Bilodeau FOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.