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Nets vs Grizzlies prediction NBA · Saturday, November 14

Sat, Nov 14 · 8:00 PM ETFedExForum · DAZN (YES), DAZN MEM

Brooklyn Nets

0-4 · away

Projected score

109-118

Memphis Grizzlies

4-0 · home

23% win BKNwin MEM 77%

FavoriteMEM

Projected margin9.2

Projected total227

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Memphis Grizzlies (4-0) host the Brooklyn Nets (0-4) on Saturday, November 14 at 8:00 PM ET at FedExForum in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Grizzlies a 77% chance to win and projects a 109-118 score (Nets – Grizzlies), about 227 total points. This season, the Grizzlies are 1-0 at home and the Nets are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-0 for the Grizzlies and 0-4 for the Nets (current streaks: Grizzlies W4, Nets L4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 24% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Grizzlies played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Egor Demin (Nets) and Tyler Bilodeau (Nets). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Grizzlies dominate this matchup. The model projects Grizzlies 118 – 109 Nets, a margin of about 9.2 points in favor of the Grizzlies and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Grizzlies played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Nets will be without Egor Demin or Tyler Bilodeau. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-1.8 vs -8.4 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Nets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Grizzlies' offense (115.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Grizzlies

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MEM -1.8 / BKN -8.4 per game

+6.7

Home-court advantageGrizzlies at home

+2.3

Back-to-backGrizzlies played yesterday

-1.6

InjuriesMEM: 0 out, 0 questionable · BKN: 2 out, 0 questionable

+1.8

Expected marginfor Grizzlies

+9.2

Scenarios

Grizzlies win by 10+

47%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

24%

Nets win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

BKNMEM

108.0

Points scored / game

115.2

117.9

Points allowed / game

117.3

42.9 %

Field goal %

45.3 %

36.7 %

3-point %

39.1 %

42.3

3-pointers attempted / game

37.8

76.6 %

Free throw %

82.8 %

43.5

Rebounds / game

50.0

24.0

Assists / game

25.0

10.0

Steals / game

6.3

4.0

Blocks / game

6.3

17.5

Turnovers / game

15.5

Players to watch

Nets

Michael Porter Jr.F · #1722.8pts / game

Julius RandleF · #305.8assists

Julius RandleF · #307.5rebounds

Grizzlies

Ty JeromeG · #229.8pts / game

Ty JeromeG · #26.5assists

Cameron BoozerF · #2710.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

BKN

L144-128L110-103L125-121L136-109L125-124 OT

MEM

116-98W

123-103W

111-108W

123-112W

110-105

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

BKN 23% · MEM 77%

ESPN BPI

BKN 36% · MEM 64%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

BKN		MEM
0-4	Record	4-0
108.0	Points scored / game	115.2
117.9	Points allowed / game	117.3
-8.4	Adjusted margin / game	-1.8
L4	Current streak	W4
0-4	Last 10 games	4-0
0-2 road	Home / road record	1-0 home
20-62 (-10.0)	Last season	25-57 (-6.0)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Nets

Egor Demin GOut

Tyler Bilodeau FOut

Injury report Grizzlies

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.