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Raptors vs Kings prediction NBA · Saturday, March 27

Sat, Mar 27 · 10:00 PM ETGolden 1 Center

Toronto Raptors

3-1 · away

Projected score

121-106

Sacramento Kings

0-4 · home

88% win TORwin SAC 12%

FavoriteTOR

Projected margin14.6

Projected total226

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Sacramento Kings (0-4) host the Toronto Raptors (3-1) on Saturday, March 27 at 10:00 PM ET at Golden 1 Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Raptors a 88% chance to win and projects a 121-106 score (Raptors – Kings), about 226 total points. This season, the Kings are 0-2 at home and the Raptors are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Kings and 3-1 for the Raptors (current streaks: Kings L4, Raptors W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 16% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Kawhi Leonard (Raptors), Nate Bittle (Raptors), Dylan Cardwell (Kings), Maxime Raynaud (Kings), Keegan Murray (Kings) and Ben Simmons (Kings). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Raptors start with a clear edge. The model projects Kings 106 – 121 Raptors, a margin of about 14.6 points in favor of the Raptors and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Kings will be without Dylan Cardwell or Maxime Raynaud (and 2 others). The Raptors will be without Kawhi Leonard or Nate Bittle. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-10.1 vs +5.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Kings need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Raptors' offense (115.4 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Raptors' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.5 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Kings

Team strength (adjusted point differential)SAC -10.1 / TOR +5.0 per game

-15.1

Home-court advantageKings at home

+2.3

InjuriesSAC: 4 out, 0 questionable · TOR: 2 out, 0 questionable

-1.8

Expected marginfor Kings

-14.6

Scenarios

Kings win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

16%

Raptors win by 10+

64%

Stat comparison Current season

TORSAC

115.4

Points scored / game

110.2

109.5

Points allowed / game

122.1

44.2 %

Field goal %

44.5 %

30.4 %

3-point %

30.0 %

34.5

3-pointers attempted / game

32.5

79.0 %

Free throw %

73.1 %

45.8

Rebounds / game

41.5

27.3

Assists / game

22.8

14.3

Steals / game

6.8

5.5

Blocks / game

2.5

14.0

Turnovers / game

14.3

Players to watch

Raptors

RJ BarrettF · #922.0pts / game

Immanuel QuickleyG · #55.5assists

Scottie BarnesF · #47.2rebounds

Kings

Zach LaVineG · #827.2pts / game

Domantas SabonisF · #117.2assists

Domantas SabonisF · #1116.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

TOR

129-125W

135-92W

112-102L

117-94W

129-99

SAC

L126-97L121-96L128-120L123-112L130-103

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

TOR 88% · SAC 12%

ESPN BPI

TOR 84% · SAC 17%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

TOR		SAC
3-1	Record	0-4
115.4	Points scored / game	110.2
109.5	Points allowed / game	122.1
+5.0	Adjusted margin / game	-10.1
W1	Current streak	L4
3-1	Last 10 games	0-4
1-1 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
46-36 (+2.8)	Last season	22-60 (-10.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Raptors

Kawhi Leonard FOut

Nate Bittle COut

Injury report Kings

Dylan Cardwell COut

Maxime Raynaud COut

Keegan Murray FOut

Ben Simmons GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.